Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Yannick Hanfmann vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #90
45%
VS

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Rank: #80
55%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Ranking Trends

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current Rank: #90 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #104 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #133 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #137 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #101 (2025-02-17)

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

  • Current Rank: #80 (2026-02-09)
  • 3 Months Ago: #85 (2025-11-17)
  • 6 Months Ago: #85 (2025-08-18)
  • 9 Months Ago: #109 (2025-05-19)
  • 12 Months Ago: #127 (2025-02-17)

Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 49.9
ELO Rating: 634.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1564.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 117.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.4
Clay: 5.0
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 77.1
Return Rating: 51.8

Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Form Index: 44.7
ELO Rating: 755.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 137.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 9.2
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 92.8

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (2-0) clay Rio 117 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Brisbane 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jacob Fearnley (0-2) hard Paris 82 min

Juan Manuel Cerundolo
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luciano Darderi (2-1) clay Rio 137 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Pedro Martinez (0-2) clay Buenos Aires 123 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 87 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Jordan Thompson (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Auckland 87 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
0
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-16 match in Rio, Brazil, is played on clay at a 500-level event. The model favors Juan Manuel Cerundolo to advance with a 54.97% chance, while Yannick Hanfmann is given a 45.03% probability; the projected total games in the match is about 23.17.

Match Analysis

Hanfmann (rank 90) brings a slightly stronger recent form index (49.94 vs 44.67) but sits behind on Elo (634.87 to Cerundolo’s 755.42). He has logged 117 minutes on court in this tournament and shows a modest surface strength index (5.04). Cerundolo (rank 80) arrives with higher Elo, greater clay affinity (surface strength 9.20) and heavier cumulative minutes (137), which could matter physically late in rallies. The mean serve index gap is notable—Hanfmann 77.06 vs Cerundolo 97.35—so Cerundolo has a clear serving edge. There is also a large return-index gap (Hanfmann 51.82 vs Cerundolo 92.83), indicating Cerundolo’s stronger two-way game on paper. Across their last three matches, Hanfmann beat Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva in Rio (2–0) and had mixed results in the Australian Open (a loss to Carlos Alcaraz and a win over Zachary Svajda). Cerundolo has mostly been on clay: he beat Luciano Darderi in Rio (2–1), split earlier Buenos Aires results with a win over Daniel Altmaier and a loss to Pedro Martinez. Both players have recent match-play on clay in South America, but Cerundolo’s higher Elo and stronger serve/return indices stand out.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match has an aces prediction of roughly 19.38 and a predicted total of about 5.72 double faults. On clay, the expected aces will be muted by the slower surface and higher bounce, while expected double faults can creep up as fatigue accumulates. Given Cerundolo’s substantially higher serve rating, he is the more likely source of a larger share of the predicted aces.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Cerundolo’s higher Elo, markedly stronger serve and return indices give him the edge despite slightly more minutes on court. Watch the serving battle and late-match consistency—serve effectiveness and return pressure will likely decide tight service games.

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