Winston Salem NC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 250 Round of 64

Kamil Majchrzak vs Benjamin Bonzi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Kamil Majchrzak

Rank: #68
49%
VS

Benjamin Bonzi

Rank: #100
51%
Expected Total Games: 22.7
Predicted Winner: Benjamin Bonzi

Why the Model Favors Benjamin Bonzi

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +3.1 Kamil Majchrzak
Recent record by level +2.1 Benjamin Bonzi
Recent form +1.5 Benjamin Bonzi
Serve & return game +1.3 Kamil Majchrzak
Surface fit +0.8 Benjamin Bonzi

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 51% for Benjamin Bonzi. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Kamil Majchrzak

  • Current #68 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #78 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #56 2026-02-23
  • 9 mo ago #63 2025-11-24
  • 12 mo ago #76 2025-08-25

Benjamin Bonzi

  • Current #100 2026-08-10
  • 3 mo ago #95 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #104 2026-02-23
  • 9 mo ago #95 2025-11-24
  • 12 mo ago #51 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Kamil Majchrzak

Form Index: 27.0
ELO Rating: 1614.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1689.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.0
Clay: 8.5
Grass: 20.9
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 89.7

Benjamin Bonzi

Form Index: 29.7
ELO Rating: 1541.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1596.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.7
Clay: 13.4
Grass: 13.0
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.0

Recent Matches

Kamil Majchrzak
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Benjamin Bonzi
❌ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Dusan Lajovic (1-2) hard Cincinnati 153 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (1-2) hard Toronto 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-0) hard Toronto 94 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Gabriel Diallo (2-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 68 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kamil Majchrzak
vs
0
Benjamin Bonzi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Winston Salem, North Carolina. Round of 64 on outdoor hard courts at an ATP 250 level event. Benjamin Bonzi is narrowly favoured to win with a 51.17% chance versus Kamil Majchrzak at 48.83%. The model expects a short, competitive match of about 22.69 total games.

Match Analysis

The projection is finely balanced. Kamil Majchrzak gains the largest single uplift from overall strength, which adds 3.1 percentage points to his chance, and he also picks up 1.3 points from serve and return metrics. That aligns with his higher ranking at 68 versus Bonzi at 100, a stronger Elo at 1614.6 compared with 1541.9, and notably higher surface strength at 22.97 versus 17.66. Both players enter fresh with zero minutes of fatigue recorded for the event. Benjamin Bonzi edges ahead because of recent results and form, which together add about 3.6 points to his side (2.1 for recent record by level, 1.5 for recent form), plus a small surface fit nudge of 0.8. Bonzi posts a slightly higher form index at 29.70 versus Majchrzak at 26.95. Serve and return indices are close, with Majchrzak at 96.96 serve and 89.73 return, and Bonzi at 96.01 serve and 86.96 return. Recent matches tell the same story. Majchrzak has lost his last three main draw matches on hard courts in straight sets. Bonzi has one win in his last three, and two tight three set defeats, suggesting he has been more resilient in recent outings.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.7 Most likely outcome: 21 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kamil Majchrzak - Benjamin Bonzi) +0.3 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 12.7 total, split roughly 6.87 for Majchrzak and 6.07 for Bonzi. The predicted aces reflect a balanced serving duel on a medium paced hard court where aces are moderate. The expected double faults total is 4.2, allocated 1.96 to Majchrzak and 2.24 to Bonzi. There is no large serve rating gap, so the per player ace projections remain close.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 12.7 Most likely: 10 aces Per player: Kamil Majchrzak 6.9 + Benjamin Bonzi 6.1
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.2 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Kamil Majchrzak 2.0 + Benjamin Bonzi 2.2

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Kamil Majchrzak

Expected 6.9 aces

Benjamin Bonzi

Expected 6.1 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Kamil Majchrzak

Expected 2.0 double faults

Benjamin Bonzi

Expected 2.2 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.0% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Kamil Majchrzak's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (35.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bonzi’s narrow edge stems mainly from a stronger recent record at comparable levels and slightly better recent form. Watch Majchrzak’s serve and return efficiency early, since those metrics are the clearest source of his upside and could tilt this tight encounter.

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