Karen Khachanov vs Benjamin Bonzi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge in this matchup is driven by a mix of factors. The strongest single driver is the serve and return dynamic, which actually leans 4.8 percentage points toward Benjamin Bonzi. That reflects Bonzi’s high recent form and balanced serving and returning metrics. At the same time Khachanov picks up model weight from recent results at this level and overall strength. Recent record by level adds 4.7 points to Khachanov, and overall strength contributes another 3.5 points to his side. Looking at the underlying numbers, Khachanov is the higher-ranked player, sitting at 49 versus Bonzi at 109. Khachanov’s Elo is 1710.6, marginally above Bonzi’s 1707.8. Form index favors Bonzi, 65.6 against Khachanov’s 48.4. Surface strength indices are comparable, 24.9 for Khachanov and 28.2 for Bonzi, so neither player has a decisive hard court advantage in raw surface scores. Fatigue is identical for both players at 348 minutes on court. Mean serve and return indices are close, so there is no large single-player serving gap on paper. Recent match form shows Khachanov arriving after wins over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Roman Burruchaga at the US Open, with one earlier loss in Cincinnati. Bonzi has also won two matches here, defeating Ignacio Buse and Alex Molcan, and lost a prior hard court match in Winston Salem. Both players bring momentum and limitations into this close contest.