Marseille France Hard Atp 250 Round of 16

Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima Prediction

Kyrian Jacquet

Rank: #85
28%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #17
72%
Expected Total Games: 26.5
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

Why the Model Favors Brandon Nakashima

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +7.1 Brandon Nakashima
Recent record by level +6.6 Brandon Nakashima
Overall strength +4.1 Brandon Nakashima
Surface fit +3.6 Brandon Nakashima
Serve & return game +3.6 Kyrian Jacquet

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 72% for Brandon Nakashima. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Kyrian Jacquet

  • Current #85 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #134 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #151 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #128 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #151 2025-10-20

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #17 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #32 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #32 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #30 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Kyrian Jacquet

Form Index: 56.9
ELO Rating: 1690.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1727.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 250.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.0
Clay: 18.3
Grass: 20.3
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 89.3

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 42.8
ELO Rating: 1814.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1837.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 127.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.8
Clay: 19.4
Grass: 21.2
Serve Rating: 97.0
Return Rating: 86.0

Recent Matches

Kyrian Jacquet
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Matteo Berrettini (2-0) hard Marseille 116 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Mmoh (1-0) hard Marseille 54 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg (2-0) hard Marseille 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Rei Sakamoto (1-2) hard Shanghai 166 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Tianhui Zhang (2-0) hard Shanghai 74 min

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kyrian Jacquet
vs
0
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Brandon Nakashima is favored, with the forecast giving him 72% to Kyrian Jacquet’s 28%. It projects 26.5 total games in this Marseille Round of 16.

Match Analysis

Nakashima’s ranking, 17th to Jacquet’s 85th, reflects the broader strength advantage behind the forecast. He also has the better hard-court profile, while his Marseille win over Hamad Medjedovic adds to a recent record that includes a win over Matteo Berrettini. Jacquet arrives on a three-match winning run, capped by a straight-set victory over Berrettini in Marseille. His stronger returning is the main counterweight: if he can put Nakashima under pressure in service games, he has a route to trouble the favorite.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.5 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kyrian Jacquet - Brandon Nakashima) -2.5 Most likely spread: -3 (Brandon Nakashima wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Jacquet is projected for 7.5 aces and 2.7 double faults, compared with 9.6 aces and 1.8 double faults for Nakashima. Nakashima’s slightly stronger serve profile fits his higher ace estimate, while Jacquet’s higher projected double-fault count points to more serving risk.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.2 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Kyrian Jacquet 7.5 + Brandon Nakashima 9.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 3 double faults Per player: Kyrian Jacquet 2.7 + Brandon Nakashima 1.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 7.5 aces

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 9.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Kyrian Jacquet

Expected 2.7 double faults

Brandon Nakashima

Expected 1.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

48.4% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Kyrian Jacquet's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (43.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jacquet’s returning is the matchup detail most capable of shifting the forecast. Nakashima has the stronger overall hard-court case, but Jacquet’s ability to pressure his serve could narrow the gap.

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