Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Liam Draxl vs Damir Dzumhur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Liam Draxl

Rank: #132
34%
VS

Damir Dzumhur

Rank: #65
66%
Expected Total Games: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Damir Dzumhur

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Ranking Trends

Liam Draxl

  • Current #132 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #122 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #115 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #156 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #208 2025-01-13

Damir Dzumhur

  • Current #65 2026-01-05
  • 3 mo ago #63 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #61 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #63 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #82 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Liam Draxl

Form Index: 79.5
ELO Rating: 527.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1532.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.9
Clay: 2.8
Grass: 2.8
Serve Rating: 44.0
Return Rating: 64.3

Damir Dzumhur

Form Index: 22.2
ELO Rating: 807.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1562.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 17.0
Clay: 20.1
Grass: 16.5
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 97.4

Recent Matches

Liam Draxl
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mackenzie McDonald (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Vitaliy Sachko (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Moerani Bouzige (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Marc-Andrea Huesler (1-2) hard Almaty 123 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Valentin Vacherot (1-2) hard Shanghai 168 min

Damir Dzumhur
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Liam Draxl
vs
0
Damir Dzumhur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match at the Australian Open features Liam Draxl facing off against Damir Dzumhur in the Round of 128 on hard courts. Dzumhur enters this match as the favorite with a predicted win probability of 65.58%, while Draxl has a 34.42% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 37.97, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Liam Draxl is currently ranked 132, with a form index of 79.51 and an Elo rating of 527.69. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is relatively high at 522 minutes. In contrast, Damir Dzumhur, ranked 65, has a significantly lower form index of 22.18 but a higher Elo rating of 807.19. Notably, Dzumhur's mean serve index stands at 97.44, which is well above Draxl's 43.98, highlighting a considerable difference in serving capability. Furthermore, Dzumhur's mean return index is slightly higher than Draxl's, indicating that he is also more effective at returning serves. In their recent performances, Draxl has displayed resilience, winning two out of his last three matches, including a victory against Mackenzie McDonald in a hard-fought three-set contest. Conversely, Dzumhur has struggled in his previous three matches, losing all of them, including two in straight sets. This recent form could impact his confidence going into the match against Draxl.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.0 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Liam Draxl - Damir Dzumhur) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Damir Dzumhur wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected aces prediction for this match is approximately 10.57, with an expected double faults prediction of 4.47. Given the hard surface, which typically promotes a balanced number of aces, Dzumhur's superior serve rating could lead to a higher ace count in his favor. The expected double faults may also play a critical role, particularly if either player struggles with their serve under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Damir Dzumhur is favored to win this matchup largely due to his superior serve and return indices, despite his recent struggles. A key factor to monitor will be Dzumhur's ability to leverage his serving strength effectively, particularly in crucial moments of the match, which could determine the outcome.

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