Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 32

Brandon Nakashima vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #34
54%
VS

Lorenzo Sonego

Rank: #47
46%
Expected Total Games: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

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Ranking Trends

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #34 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #33 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #38 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #35 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #65 2024-07-01

Lorenzo Sonego

  • Current #47 2025-06-30
  • 3 mo ago #38 2025-03-31
  • 6 mo ago #53 2024-12-30
  • 9 mo ago #49 2024-09-30
  • 12 mo ago #54 2024-07-01

Player Metrics

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 75.5
ELO Rating: 1258.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1597.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 10.6
Grass: 12.2
Serve Rating: 98.0
Return Rating: 84.1

Lorenzo Sonego

Form Index: 68.1
ELO Rating: 1024.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1594.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 8.8
Grass: 9.3
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 84.8

Recent Matches

Brandon Nakashima
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Lorenzo Sonego
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Brandon Nakashima
vs
1
Lorenzo Sonego
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

As the Wimbledon tournament progresses into the Round of 32, Brandon Nakashima faces Lorenzo Sonego on the grass courts of Great Britain. With a slight edge, Nakashima is predicted to win with a probability of 53.86%, while Sonego's chances stand at 46.14%. The match is anticipated to be competitive, with a predicted total of 39 games.

Match Analysis

Brandon Nakashima, currently ranked 34, boasts a form index of 75.51 and an Elo rating of 1258.34, suggesting a solid performance level. His cumulative fatigue from the tournament is 348 minutes, which is balanced by a strong surface strength index of 12.19. Notably, Nakashima's mean serve index of 98.05 exceeds Sonego's 96.20 by more than 5 points, which could be a critical advantage on grass. In contrast, Sonego, ranked 47, has a form index of 68.07 and an Elo rating of 1024.35. His surface strength index of 9.32 indicates a lesser adaptability to grass compared to Nakashima. In their most recent matches, both players have shown resilience. Nakashima won his last two matches against Reilly Opelka and Yunchaokete Bu, demonstrating his ability to perform under pressure on grass. Sonego, meanwhile, has also secured victories against Nikoloz Basilashvili and Jaime Faria, showcasing his fighting spirit. However, Sonego's earlier loss to Ugo Humbert at Eastbourne raises questions about his consistency.

Final Prediction

Nakashima's slight edge in both serve effectiveness and recent performance gives him a favorable outlook in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how effectively he can leverage his strong serve against Sonego's return game, which may ultimately dictate the flow of the match.

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