Andrea Pellegrino vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The numbers underline a clear gap: Darderi is ranked 21 with an Elo around 1548, while Pellegrino sits at 137 with an Elo near 485. Form indices are comparable (Pellegrino 50.7, Darderi 55.8), but fatigue and serving metrics swing the balance. Pellegrino has accumulated 542 minutes on court this week versus Darderi’s 146, a major endurance differential on demanding clay. Surface strength indices are low for both, but Darderi’s 12.36 edges Pellegrino’s 3.72. The mean serve index gap is notable — Darderi 97.05 to Pellegrino 80.33 — and the mean return gap also exceeds five points in Pellegrino’s favor (96.58 vs 87.47), setting up an intriguing clash between Darderi’s serve potency and Pellegrino’s return ability. Looking at recent results, Pellegrino arrives off three consecutive wins in Santiago, all 2-1 and featuring long matches (171, 112, 178 minutes), which explains his heavy fatigue load. Darderi has a mixed lead-in: a solid last-win in Santiago (2-1, 146 minutes) bookended by two earlier losses on clay in Rio and Buenos Aires. That recent inconsistency aside, his overall profile — higher rank, much stronger serve index and much lower tournament fatigue — favors him here.