Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Yannick Hanfmann vs Luciano Darderi: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #59
41%
VS

Luciano Darderi

Rank: #20
59%
Expected Total Games: 29.2
Predicted Winner: Luciano Darderi

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #59 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #93 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #117 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #132 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #125 2025-05-05

Luciano Darderi

  • Current #20 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #26 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #34 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #46 2025-05-05

Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 54.4
ELO Rating: 1690.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1748.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 139.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.8
Clay: 25.5
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 91.4

Luciano Darderi

Form Index: 32.3
ELO Rating: 1653.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1737.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.9
Clay: 25.5
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 84.5

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Hubert Hurkacz (2-1) clay Rome 139 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Francisco Cerundolo (0-2) clay Madrid 100 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Marcos Giron (2-1) clay Madrid 143 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (0-2) clay Munich 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Karim Bennani (2-1) clay Marrakech 132 min

Luciano Darderi
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
1
Luciano Darderi
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rome, Round of 64 on clay at a Masters 1000 event pits Yannick Hanfmann against Luciano Darderi in a first-week clash. The model favors Luciano Darderi to prevail (58.80%) over Yannick Hanfmann (41.20%), with a projected total of about 29.2 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Luciano Darderi arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 20) while Hanfmann sits at No. 59. Hanfmann has a higher form index (54.43 vs 32.29) and a slightly better Elo (1690.31 vs 1653.50), but he also carries 139 minutes of cumulative fatigue from this tournament; Darderi lists zero minutes on court. Both players show nearly identical clay surface strength (25.46 vs 25.46), so neither has a clear surface advantage. Hanfmann’s mean return index (91.38) is materially better than Darderi’s (84.48) — a gap of nearly seven points that could be decisive on return games; serve indices are comparable (96.14 vs 94.49), so there’s no big serving edge. Over their last three matches, Hanfmann has been inconsistent but capable: a win over Hubert Hurkacz in Rome (2-1), a loss to Francisco Cerundolo in Madrid, and a hard-fought win against Marcos Giron in Madrid. Darderi’s recent form is patchy as well — a straight-sets loss to Francisco Cerundolo in Madrid, a win over Juan Manuel Cerundolo, and a loss in Munich — indicating momentum is mixed and form swings may determine a tight contest.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 29.2 Most likely outcome: 29 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yannick Hanfmann - Luciano Darderi) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Luciano Darderi wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: a predicted aces total of about 10.58 for the match, reflecting clay’s slower speed and higher bounce which generally reduce ace volume. The expected double faults figure is 4.57; longer rallies and physical toll on clay can increase unforced serving errors. Neither player posts a dramatically superior serve rating, so the predicted aces are driven more by surface than by a single dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

41.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yannick Hanfmann's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (32.4%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Darderi’s higher ranking and fresher legs give him the edge in this encounter, despite Hanfmann’s stronger recent form and superior return numbers. Key factor to watch: Hanfmann’s return efficiency — if it translates into early breaks, the match could tilt into a longer battle rather than the shorter, Darderi-favored outcome the model predicts.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel