Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Kyrian Jacquet

Rank: #147
34%
VS

Marco Trungelliti

Rank: #81
66%
Expected Total Games: 46.8
Predicted Winner: Marco Trungelliti

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Player Metrics

Kyrian Jacquet

Form Index: 54.7
ELO Rating: 1615.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1637.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.8
Clay: 22.3
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 93.2
Return Rating: 89.3

Marco Trungelliti

Form Index: 30.1
ELO Rating: 1566.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1620.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.8
Clay: 10.3
Grass: 8.0
Serve Rating: 94.3
Return Rating: 88.2

Recent Matches

Kyrian Jacquet

  • Last Match: vs Felix Gill (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Nerman Fatic (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Lorenzo Giustino (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Mees Rottgering (1-1) hard Rotterdam 129 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Emilio Nava (2-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Marco Trungelliti

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Kyrian Jacquet
vs
0
Marco Trungelliti
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 128 on clay at the Grand Slam level pits Kyrian Jacquet against Marco Trungelliti. The model favors Marco Trungelliti to win (65.57%) over Kyrian Jacquet (34.43%), with an expected total of about 46.75 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Jacquet (rank 147) arrives with a stronger recent form index (54.67) and a higher Elo (1615.6) than Trungelliti (rank 81, form 30.06, Elo 1566.4). However, the fatigue readout is stark: Jacquet shows 522 minutes on court this tournament versus Trungelliti’s zero, a factor that can blunt effectiveness in the long rallies clay demands. On surface strength, Jacquet’s index (22.30) is notably higher than Trungelliti’s (10.29), suggesting Jacquet has been relatively more comfortable on clay according to the proprietary metric. Serving and returning profiles are very similar: mean serve index is 93.21 for Jacquet and 94.28 for Trungelliti, while mean return index is 89.28 versus 88.15, so neither player holds a clear edge in those facets by the >5-point rule. Jacquet’s last three outings at Roland Garros are all wins, showing momentum through consecutive matches, whereas Trungelliti’s recent streak is composed of losses in Geneva, Rome and Madrid. Those recent results plus Jacquet’s extended match times explain his higher form and Elo but also underline the fatigue concern that likely influenced the projection.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 46.8 Most likely outcome: 46 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Kyrian Jacquet versus Marco Trungelliti. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Kyrian Jacquet versus Marco Trungelliti. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Kyrian Jacquet - Marco Trungelliti) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Marco Trungelliti wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Kyrian Jacquet versus Marco Trungelliti. Positive values indicate Kyrian Jacquet winning more games, negative values indicate Marco Trungelliti winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Kyrian Jacquet versus Marco Trungelliti. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash is modest: predicted aces are 17.24 for the match, while the expected double faults tally sits at 9.26. On clay, slower ball speed and higher bounce typically suppress ace totals and can increase double faults late in matches; that surface context reinforces the model’s lower predicted aces and elevated expected double faults. With both players showing near-identical serve indexes, no single player is expected to drive a large portion of the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 17.2 Most likely: 17 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 9.3 Most likely: 9 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Kyrian Jacquet versus Marco Trungelliti. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Kyrian Jacquet versus Marco Trungelliti. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Kyrian Jacquet versus Marco Trungelliti. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Kyrian Jacquet versus Marco Trungelliti. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Kyrian Jacquet's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (22.4%)
Probability distribution of the final set score from Kyrian Jacquet's perspective. Format: BO5.

Final Prediction

Trungelliti’s higher ranking and, crucially, his lack of accumulated tournament fatigue give him the modeled edge despite Jacquet’s superior recent form and Elo. The key factor to monitor will be Jacquet’s recovery and error rate in extended rallies—if fatigue shows, double faults and shorter points could decide the match.

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