Rio Brazil Clay Atp 500 Round of 16

Matteo Berrettini vs Dusan Lajovic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Matteo Berrettini

Rank: #58
71%
VS

Dusan Lajovic

Rank: #123
29%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Matteo Berrettini

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Ranking Trends

Matteo Berrettini

  • Current #58 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #56 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #52 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #35 2025-02-17

Dusan Lajovic

  • Current #123 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #119 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #129 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #124 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #83 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Matteo Berrettini

Form Index: 48.6
ELO Rating: 919.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1638.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 145.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.6
Clay: 8.1
Grass: 7.6
Serve Rating: 95.4
Return Rating: 39.9

Dusan Lajovic

Form Index: 54.5
ELO Rating: 535.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1578.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 414.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.3
Clay: 6.3
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 96.7
Return Rating: 90.9

Recent Matches

Matteo Berrettini
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

Dusan Lajovic
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Matteo Berrettini
vs
0
Dusan Lajovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 16 clash in Rio (clay, 500-level) pits Matteo Berrettini against Dusan Lajovic with a place in the quarterfinals on the line. The model favors Matteo Berrettini to win (71.11% vs 28.89%) with a projected match length of about 23.2 total games.

Match Analysis

Berrettini arrives ranked 58 with an Elo of 919.64, a form index of 48.6 and a tournament fatigue total of 145 minutes on court; his surface strength index is 8.08. Lajovic is ranked 123 with an Elo of 535.86, a slightly higher form index of 54.51 but much greater accumulated fatigue at 414 minutes and a surface strength index of 6.34. The two players’ mean serve indices are close, so serving power is roughly comparable, but Lajovic’s mean return index (90.94) is markedly higher than Berrettini’s (39.89), a significant gap that favors return games for Lajovic. Recent form tells a mixed story. Berrettini has two wins in his last three clay matches (including a straight-sets Rio win over Tomas Barrios Vera) but had a straight-sets loss to Vit Kopriva in Buenos Aires; his recent matches have included long contests (matches of 134 and 145 minutes). Lajovic has also been active in Rio, beating Daniel Altmaier and Hugo Dellien while dropping a long three-set match to Thiago Monteiro that lasted 171 minutes—contributing to his heavy fatigue total.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Matteo Berrettini - Dusan Lajovic) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Dusan Lajovic wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: the predicted aces total is 6.72, reflecting clay’s tendency to suppress free points; this is the predicted aces figure. The expected double faults estimate is 4.11. Given the surface and Lajovic’s heavier match load, the double faults prediction may be influenced by fatigue, while similar serve indices mean neither player is expected to dominate the ace count solely by serve rating.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Berrettini’s higher Elo and more efficient recent results on clay give him the edge in the model, despite Lajovic’s strong return numbers. The key factor to watch is whether Lajovic’s elite return index and accumulated court time will translate into consistent pressure on Berrettini’s service games.

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