Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Rinky Hijikata vs Mattia Bellucci: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Rinky Hijikata

Rank: #115
51%
VS

Mattia Bellucci

Rank: #110
49%
Expected Total Games: 22.8
Predicted Winner: Rinky Hijikata

Ranking Trends

Rinky Hijikata

  • Current Rank: #115 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #125 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #103 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #78 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #82 (2025-02-24)

Mattia Bellucci

  • Current Rank: #110 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #74 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #65 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #68 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #70 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Rinky Hijikata

Form Index: 46.5
ELO Rating: 645.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 197.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 5.1
Clay: 3.1
Grass: 4.5
Serve Rating: 72.3
Return Rating: 53.8

Mattia Bellucci

Form Index: 9.4
ELO Rating: 717.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1549.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.4
Clay: 6.8
Grass: 7.5
Serve Rating: 98.2
Return Rating: 89.4

Recent Matches

Rinky Hijikata
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Yibing Wu (0-2) hard Acapulco 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alan Magadan (2-0) hard Acapulco 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Frances Tiafoe (0-2) hard Delray Beach 73 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Dalibor Svrcina (2-0) hard Delray Beach 97 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Michael Mmoh (2-1) hard Delray Beach 174 min

Mattia Bellucci
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (0-2) hard Delray Beach 62 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (0-2) hard Dallas 68 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Hamad Medjedovic (0-2) hard Auckland 67 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux (2-0) hard Auckland 89 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rinky Hijikata
vs
0
Mattia Bellucci
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round of 32 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard courts at an atp_500-level event. The model gives Rinky Hijikata a narrow edge — predicted winner Rinky Hijikata with 50.87% probability versus Mattia Bellucci at 49.13% — and forecasts a relatively short match around 22.82 total games.

Match Analysis

Hijikata (rank 115) comes in with a considerably higher form index (46.50) than Bellucci (rank 110, form 9.41), though Bellucci carries a superior Elo (716.96 vs 645.87). Fatigue is a factor: Hijikata has accumulated 197 minutes on court in the current event while Bellucci has no in-tournament minutes, which could influence sharpness late in rallies. Surface strength indices are both low and similar (Hijikata 5.14, Bellucci 6.45), suggesting neither has a major hard-court specialization advantage. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply. Bellucci’s mean serve index (98.17) outstrips Hijikata’s (72.29) by more than 25 points, and his mean return index (89.41) also exceeds Hijikata’s (53.76) by over 35 points — both differences are significant and likely to shape patterns of service holds and short points. Recent form over the last three matches shows Hijikata with one win (straight sets over Alan Magadan) and two losses (to Yibing Wu and Frances Tiafoe), while Bellucci has recorded three straight losses (to Miomir Kecmanovic, Brandon Nakashima and Casper Ruud). That recent record favors Hijikata in momentum despite Bellucci’s stronger single-match metrics.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.8 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 13.89 total; this predicted aces figure reflects Bellucci’s substantially higher serve index, so he should supply a larger share of those service winners. Expected double faults are 5.29 in total — a modest number consistent with a medium-paced hard court. Hard courts typically produce a balanced number of aces compared with grass or clay, so the predicted aces and expected double faults align with surface characteristics and Bellucci’s serve advantage.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.9 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.3 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hijikata’s edge comes from better recent form and match experience in the event, counterbalancing Bellucci’s higher serve and return metrics; the contest is projected to be very tight. The key factor to watch is Bellucci’s serve — if he converts on free points, he can flip the match despite the narrow probability split.

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