Jan Choinski vs Mees Rottgering: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Choinski comes mainly from overall strength, with a 12.5 percentage point swing toward him, and a smaller boost from recent form worth 3.3 points. Choinski enters ranked 77 with an Elo of 1567.4 and a form index of 37.68. He shows high serve and return indices on paper (mean serve 96.12, mean return 88.83) and reports no cumulative fatigue in this event. Rottgering is ranked 418, with an Elo of 1542.2 and a stronger short term form index of 46.58. His surface strength index reads 13.69 versus Choinski’s 9.28, which slightly favors Rottgering on hard courts, but the model still weights Choinski’s broader strengths more heavily. Some secondary model influences favor Rottgering. Age moves 2.5 percentage points toward him, and his recent wins at this tournament contribute 2.3 points for overall record and opposition quality. Serve and return dynamics also nudge toward Rottgering by 2.2 points. Fatigue is a contrast: Rottgering has accumulated 160 minutes on court in this event, while Choinski shows zero. Over their last three matches, Choinski has struggled with three losses at Cincinnati, Bastad and Wimbledon. Rottgering has two straight wins at Winston Salem after a loss at s Hertogenbosch, suggesting momentum on site.