Shanghai China Hard Masters 1000 Round of 64

Miomir Kecmanovic vs Jakub Mensik Prediction

Miomir Kecmanovic

Rank: #61
25%
VS

Jakub Mensik

Rank: #15
75%
Expected Total Games: 25.8
Predicted Winner: Jakub Mensik

Why the Model Favors Jakub Mensik

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +7.6 Jakub Mensik
Overall strength +4.9 Jakub Mensik
Surface fit +4.2 Jakub Mensik
Serve & return game +4.1 Jakub Mensik
Overall record & opposition quality +2.3 Jakub Mensik

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 75% for Jakub Mensik. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Miomir Kecmanovic

  • Current #61 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #50 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #59 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #51 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #47 2025-09-29

Jakub Mensik

  • Current #15 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #18 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #26 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #18 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #16 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Miomir Kecmanovic

Form Index: 29.3
ELO Rating: 1541.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1582.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 74.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 15.8
Clay: 12.8
Grass: 15.9
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.6

Jakub Mensik

Form Index: 44.4
ELO Rating: 1805.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1855.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.4
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 18.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 86.7

Recent Matches

Miomir Kecmanovic
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

Jakub Mensik
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Miomir Kecmanovic
vs
1
Jakub Mensik
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Mensik is favoured, with the forecast giving him a 75% chance of winning to Kecmanovic’s 25%. It projects 25.8 games in the Shanghai Round of 64 match.

Match Analysis

Mensik’s No. 15 ranking, compared with Kecmanovic’s No. 61, reflects the broader strength gap behind the forecast. He also has the stronger hard-court record profile, while the serve-and-return balance is projected to work in his favour. Their recent results are mixed, but Mensik’s win over Alexander Bublik is a notable result, while Kecmanovic’s latest victory was against Sho Shimabukuro after losses to Adrian Mannarino and Nikoloz Basilashvili. Kecmanovic has played 74 minutes in Shanghai, compared with none for Mensik, giving the Czech a freshness advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.8 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Miomir Kecmanovic - Jakub Mensik) -3.2 Most likely spread: -4 (Jakub Mensik wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Mensik is projected to hit 12.2 aces, well ahead of Kecmanovic’s 5.0. The forecast has Mensik making 3.4 double faults and Kecmanovic 2.2, so Mensik’s greater expected serving impact comes with a higher error count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.2 Most likely: 14 aces Per player: Miomir Kecmanovic 5.0 + Jakub Mensik 12.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Miomir Kecmanovic 2.2 + Jakub Mensik 3.4

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Miomir Kecmanovic

Expected 5.0 aces

Jakub Mensik

Expected 12.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Miomir Kecmanovic

Expected 2.2 double faults

Jakub Mensik

Expected 3.4 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

45.8% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Miomir Kecmanovic's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (48.1%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Kecmanovic’s return could make this closer if he turns Mensik’s projected double faults into sustained pressure. If Mensik limits those errors, his serving advantage should be difficult to contain.

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