Madrid Spain Clay Masters 1000 Round of 64

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Denis Shapovalov: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Rank: #140
37%
VS

Denis Shapovalov

Rank: #35
63%
Expected Total Games: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Denis Shapovalov

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

  • Current #140 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #135 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #137 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #253 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #305 2025-04-21

Denis Shapovalov

  • Current #35 2026-04-20
  • 3 mo ago #23 2026-01-19
  • 6 mo ago #23 2025-10-20
  • 9 mo ago #28 2025-07-21
  • 12 mo ago #30 2025-04-21

Player Metrics

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Form Index: 62.8
ELO Rating: 1623.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 176.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 52.0
Clay: 39.9
Grass: 40.0
Serve Rating: 64.1
Return Rating: 68.7

Denis Shapovalov

Form Index: 43.0
ELO Rating: 1661.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1718.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 57.0
Clay: 39.7
Grass: 41.5
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 91.1

Recent Matches

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Denis Shapovalov
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Alex Molcan (0-2) clay Munich 78 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Fabian Marozsan (2-0) clay Munich 85 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Tallon Griekspoor (2-1) clay Munich 122 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Blockx (1-2) clay Monte Carlo 106 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (0-2) hard Miami 91 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
vs
0
Denis Shapovalov
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Madrid Masters 1000 on clay, Round of 64 pits Nicolai Budkov Kjaer against Denis Shapovalov. The model favors Shapovalov to advance with a 62.77% probability, while Kjaer is projected at 37.23%; the forecast calls for a relatively short match with about 23.0 total games.

Match Analysis

On paper Shapovalov brings the higher standing — world No. 35 to Kjaer’s No. 140 — and a higher Elo (1661.7 vs 1623.7). Kjaer’s form index (62.8) is stronger than Shapovalov’s (43.0), suggesting Kjaer arrives with recent momentum, but fatigue is a key differentiator: Kjaer carries 176 minutes on court in Madrid while Shapovalov is fresh (0 minutes). Both players have nearly identical clay surface strength indices (39.93 vs 39.70), so surface-specific comfort is not a major separator. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply: Shapovalov’s mean serve index (97.76) is far superior to Kjaer’s (64.07), and his mean return index (91.07) also outstrips Kjaer’s (68.69) — both differences exceed 5 points and are notable. That combination gives Shapovalov an edge on both serve holds and breaking opportunities on paper. Recent form shows Kjaer riding three straight wins in Madrid, all in clay rounds leading into this match; Shapovalov reached the latter stages in Munich with two wins before a loss to Alex Molcan, so he arrives off mixed recent results but with no accumulated minutes here.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Denis Shapovalov) +1.9 Most likely spread: +2 (Nicolai Budkov Kjaer wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

An aces prediction for this clay encounter sits at a predicted aces total of 16.73 for the match. Clay typically reduces ace frequency, and the expected double faults figure is 6.69 — a reasonable expected double faults count given longer rallies and potential fatigue. With Shapovalov’s markedly higher serve rating, he should supply most of the aces, which lifts the predicted aces despite the slow surface.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.7 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.7 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Shapovalov’s superior serve and return indices, plus a higher Elo and fresher legs, explain the projected edge. The key factor to watch will be whether Kjaer’s recent match rhythm can overcome Shapovalov’s serving firepower and freshness on clay.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel