Brussels Belgium Hard Atp 250 Round of 32

Nishesh Basavareddy vs Raphael Collignon Prediction

Nishesh Basavareddy

Rank: #134
50%
VS

Raphael Collignon

Rank: #55
50%
Expected Total Games: 25.6
Predicted Winner: Raphael Collignon

Why the Model Favors Raphael Collignon

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Surface fit +1.9 Raphael Collignon
Recent form +1.5 Nishesh Basavareddy
Overall strength +1.4 Raphael Collignon
Age +1.3 Nishesh Basavareddy
Overall record & opposition quality +0.8 Raphael Collignon

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 50% for Raphael Collignon. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Nishesh Basavareddy

  • Current #134 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #146 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #177 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #242 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #123 2025-10-20

Raphael Collignon

  • Current #55 2026-10-19
  • 3 mo ago #37 2026-07-20
  • 6 mo ago #71 2026-04-20
  • 9 mo ago #72 2026-01-19
  • 12 mo ago #73 2025-10-20

Player Metrics

Nishesh Basavareddy

Form Index: 53.5
ELO Rating: 1647.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1682.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 180.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 22.2
Clay: 11.6
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 95.2
Return Rating: 88.2

Raphael Collignon

Form Index: 34.2
ELO Rating: 1564.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1679.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.7
Clay: 20.8
Grass: 8.9
Serve Rating: 95.5
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Nishesh Basavareddy
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Aziz Dougaz (2-0) hard Brussels 99 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Edas Butvilas (2-0) hard Brussels 81 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Kimmer Coppejans (0-2) hard Shanghai 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Tristan Schoolkate (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Gea (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Raphael Collignon
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Sebastian Gorzny (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Rinky Hijikata (1-2) hard Winston Salem 190 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Mariano Navone (0-2) hard Cincinnati 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexei Popyrin (0-2) hard Toronto 74 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (0-2) clay Kitzbuhel 84 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Nishesh Basavareddy
vs
0
Raphael Collignon
Hard
1 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Raphael Collignon is a marginal pick, at 50% to Nishesh Basavareddy’s 50% after rounding, with 25.6 total games expected. The Brussels Round of 32 forecast is nearly even, with recent results keeping Basavareddy firmly in contention.

Match Analysis

Collignon’s stronger hard-court fit and higher established standing are the main reasons he comes out narrowly ahead. He is ranked 55, compared with Basavareddy at 134, and the overall record and quality of opposition also tilt his way. His latest hard-court outing ended in a loss to Sebastian Gorzny at the US Open. Basavareddy has won his first two Brussels matches in straight sets, against Edas Butvilas and Aziz Dougaz, giving him the clearer recent momentum. His age also weighs in his favour, but he has spent 180 minutes on court in this tournament, compared with none for Collignon. That workload could matter if the close match extends.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 25.6 Most likely outcome: 25 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Nishesh Basavareddy - Raphael Collignon) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Basavareddy is projected for 6.0 aces and 4.1 double faults, while Collignon is projected for 7.8 aces and 5.3 double faults. Their serve profiles are close, but Collignon has a slight serving advantage in the projection, and the hard court supports a fairly even contest between serve and return.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.5 Most likely: 11 aces Per player: Nishesh Basavareddy 6.0 + Raphael Collignon 7.8
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 9.2 Most likely: 8 double faults Per player: Nishesh Basavareddy 4.1 + Raphael Collignon 5.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Nishesh Basavareddy

Expected 6.0 aces

Raphael Collignon

Expected 7.8 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Nishesh Basavareddy

Expected 4.1 double faults

Raphael Collignon

Expected 5.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

44.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Nishesh Basavareddy's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Basavareddy’s stronger return gives him a way to overturn the narrow forecast. If he can put pressure on Collignon’s serve, his recent form gives him a real chance to take control.

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