Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The players present a contrast: Carreno Busta is ranked 124 with an Elo of ~801 and a form index of 56.3, while Lehecka is ranked 24 with an Elo of ~1772 and a form index of 54.8. Fatigue is notably different — Carreno Busta has logged 324 minutes in this tournament compared with Lehecka’s 122 minutes — and Lehecka’s higher surface strength index (13.29 vs 5.03) gives him an additional edge on hard courts. The mean serve indices diverge substantially (Carreno Busta 70.04 vs Lehecka 98.33), and the mean return indices also show a large gap (48.23 vs 89.05), both differences greater than five points, underlining Lehecka’s advantage on both serve and return metrics. Recent form paints a complementary picture. Carreno Busta arrives off three consecutive wins in Dubai — straight-set victories and one long three-setter (177 minutes) among them — showing resilience but also accumulated minutes. Lehecka has two wins and one loss in his last three matches (a recent win in Dubai, a defeat to Arthur Fils in Doha, and a prior win in Doha), with considerably less court time this week. Those patterns accentuate Lehecka’s fresher legs and superior match-up metrics.