Doha Qatar Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Quentin Halys: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #105
43%
VS

Quentin Halys

Rank: #77
57%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

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Ranking Trends

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current #105 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #89 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #113 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #100 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #111 2025-02-17

Quentin Halys

  • Current #77 2026-02-09
  • 3 mo ago #92 2025-11-17
  • 6 mo ago #70 2025-08-18
  • 9 mo ago #50 2025-05-19
  • 12 mo ago #79 2025-02-17

Player Metrics

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 43.3
ELO Rating: 677.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1536.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 170.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.0
Clay: 5.1
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 69.2
Return Rating: 43.3

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 42.7
ELO Rating: 762.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1591.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 211.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.6
Clay: 7.8
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 98.8
Return Rating: 87.6

Recent Matches

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Quentin Halys
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Jan Choinski (1-2) hard Doha 133 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Mert Alkaya (2-0) hard Doha 78 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tallon Griekspoor (0-2) hard Rotterdam 121 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Mees Rottgering (2-1) hard Rotterdam 113 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Pablo Carreno Busta
vs
1
Quentin Halys
Hard
0 - 1
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Doha, Qatar (hard court, 500-level event) pits Pablo Carreno Busta against Quentin Halys. The model favors Quentin Halys to win (57.40%) over Pablo Carreno Busta (42.60%), with an expected total of about 24.36 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Halys arrives with a higher ranking (77) than Carreno Busta (105) and holds a noticeably stronger Elo (762.64 vs 677.89). Form indices are similar (Carreno 43.34, Halys 42.66), so recent momentum is comparable on paper. Fatigue leans toward Carreno Busta being fresher (170 minutes on court vs Halys’s 211), which could matter in longer exchanges. On surface strength, both players show modest numbers but Halys’s 6.65 edges Carreno Busta’s 3.96. Serve and return profiles diverge sharply: Halys’s mean serve index (98.82) is substantially higher than Carreno Busta’s (69.25), and his mean return index (87.61) is also far superior to Carreno Busta’s (43.31). Those gaps suggest Halys can generate more free points on serve while also applying pressure when receiving. Over the last three matches Carreno Busta is 2-1 (two straight wins in Doha after a loss in Rotterdam), whereas Halys is 1-2 (a win in Doha sandwiched between losses in Doha and Rotterdam). Carreno Busta’s recent wins in Doha show comfort on the surface, but Halys’s overall ratings and serve/return metrics give him the statistical edge.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Pablo Carreno Busta - Quentin Halys) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Quentin Halys wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match centers on Halys’s big-serve profile; the predicted aces total is 10.57, and Halys’s high serve index should drive a sizeable share of those. Double faults prediction is modest with expected double faults around 4.47 for the match; the hard surface typically produces a moderate number of aces and a moderate error rate. Given Halys’s superior serve rating, expect him to influence the predicted aces while also carrying some of the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Halys’s stronger serve and return metrics and higher Elo give him the edge in the model, despite slightly greater fatigue. The key factor to watch is whether Halys’s serve domination translates into free points and prevents long returns-based rallies where Carreno Busta can grind.

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