Rome Italy Clay Masters 1000 Round of 128

Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ethan Quinn

Rank: #48
42%
VS

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Rank: #139
58%
Expected Total Games: 26.5
Predicted Winner: Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Also available in Claude. Query these predictions in plain language — our native connector lets Claude call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Ethan Quinn

  • Current #48 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #68 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #67 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #82 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #114 2025-05-05

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

  • Current #139 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #204 2026-02-02
  • 6 mo ago #205 2025-11-03
  • 9 mo ago #360 2025-08-04
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Player Metrics

Ethan Quinn

Form Index: 34.3
ELO Rating: 1592.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1618.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.3
Clay: 19.6
Grass: 10.7
Serve Rating: 95.1
Return Rating: 89.9

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Form Index: 59.6
ELO Rating: 1590.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1669.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 233.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 21.7
Grass: 6.8
Serve Rating: 93.4
Return Rating: 88.3

Recent Matches

Ethan Quinn
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Pablo Llamas Ruiz
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ethan Quinn
vs
0
Pablo Llamas Ruiz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Rome Masters 1000 in Italy, Round of 128 on clay pits Ethan Quinn against Pablo Llamas Ruiz. The model favors Pablo Llamas Ruiz to advance (57.89% vs 42.11% for Quinn) with an expected total of about 26.5 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Ethan Quinn arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 48) with a strong mean serve index (95.06) and a very good mean return index (89.86). His Elo (1592.13) sits virtually level with Pablo’s, but his form index (34.29) is substantially lower than Llamas Ruiz’s. Importantly Quinn shows no cumulative fatigue in this tournament (0 minutes on court), which is an advantage on a physically demanding clay surface. Quinn’s surface strength index is modest at 19.63, indicating clay is not a standout surface for him relative to others. Pablo Llamas Ruiz, ranked 139, brings a higher form index (59.61) into Rome and an Elo of 1590.93 — effectively level with Quinn. His surface strength index (21.74) is slightly higher but comparable. Pablo carries 233 minutes of court time in this event, reflecting two wins already in Rome; that fatigue will be a factor on slow clay. Both players have similar serve and return indexes (differences under 5 points), so neither holds a clear serving-edge on paper. Recent form shows Quinn won one of his last three (beat Reilly Opelka) but lost in Madrid and in Barcelona to higher-level opposition; Llamas Ruiz has won his two opening matches in Rome after a loss in Madrid.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.5 Most likely outcome: 26 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ethan Quinn - Pablo Llamas Ruiz) -1.4 Most likely spread: -2 (Pablo Llamas Ruiz wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match is modest: the model’s predicted aces total is about 10.58, and the expected double faults total is roughly 4.57. Clay’s slower speed and higher bounce typically reduce ace counts and can increase double faults as rallies and matches extend. Neither player posts a significantly higher serve rating that would markedly boost the predicted aces, so the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect surface and match-length dynamics.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.6 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ethan Quinn's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Pablo Llamas Ruiz’s superior recent form and consecutive wins in Rome give him the narrow edge despite comparable Elo and serving/return profiles. The key factor to watch is how Pablo’s 233 minutes of court time influence his consistency late in rallies; if fatigue shows, Quinn’s fresh legs and strong return numbers could swing tight games.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel