Acapulco Mexico Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Patrick Kypson vs Alex de Minaur: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Patrick Kypson

Rank: #103
22%
VS

Alex de Minaur

Rank: #6
78%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Alex de Minaur

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Ranking Trends

Patrick Kypson

  • Current #103 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #117 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #189 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #344 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #350 2025-02-24

Alex de Minaur

  • Current #6 2026-02-23
  • 3 mo ago #7 2025-11-24
  • 6 mo ago #8 2025-08-25
  • 9 mo ago #9 2025-05-26
  • 12 mo ago #8 2025-02-24

Player Metrics

Patrick Kypson

Form Index: 33.6
ELO Rating: 481.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1517.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 64.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 1.4
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 4.4
Serve Rating: 83.2
Return Rating: 49.9

Alex de Minaur

Form Index: 81.9
ELO Rating: 4080.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1865.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.6
Clay: 33.2
Grass: 34.5
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 87.7

Recent Matches

Patrick Kypson
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Alex de Minaur
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-1) hard Rotterdam 164 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Stan Wawrinka (2-0) hard Rotterdam 69 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fils (2-0) hard Rotterdam 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Patrick Kypson
vs
0
Alex de Minaur
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 match in Acapulco, Mexico is on hard courts at a 500-level tournament. Alex de Minaur is the clear favorite; the model gives him a 77.64% chance to win versus 22.36% for Patrick Kypson, with a predicted total of about 23.25 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The numbers show a sizable gulf between the two. Kypson is ranked 103 with a form index of 33.65, an Elo of 481.02 and 64 minutes of cumulative fatigue in the event so far; his surface strength index is 1.44. De Minaur sits at rank 6 with a form index of 81.91, a far higher Elo of 4080.22 and no tournament fatigue recorded; his surface strength index is 28.57. De Minaur’s mean serve index (95.94) is notably higher than Kypson’s (83.23) — a difference above 5 points — and his mean return index (87.72) exceeds Kypson’s (49.89) by a wide margin as well, indicating a clear advantage on both serve quality and return ability. Recent form reinforces those metrics. Kypson is 1-2 across his last three matches on hard courts (a straight-sets win over Coleman Wong, flanked by losses to Terence Atmane and Aleksandar Kovacevic), suggesting some inconsistency. De Minaur arrives unbeaten in his last three hard-court matches (wins over Stan Wawrinka, Botic van de Zandschulp and Ugo Humbert), including a long 164-minute contest and two shorter wins, indicating both endurance and match sharpness.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Patrick Kypson - Alex de Minaur) -0.5 Most likely spread: -1 (Alex de Minaur wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the fixture is modest, with predicted aces around 6.72 for the match and an expected double faults tally near 4.11. On medium-paced hard courts, these figures align with a balanced serving environment — neither serve-dominant nor return-dominant. Because de Minaur has a significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute disproportionately to the predicted aces, while the expected double faults figure reflects some risk if both players press on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

De Minaur’s superior form, much higher Elo and strong serve/return indices give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be de Minaur’s return pressure against Kypson’s serve — how often Kypson can hold under pressure will likely decide the match.

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