Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Pedro Martinez vs Novak Djokovic: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #96
25%
VS

Novak Djokovic

Rank: #4
75%
Expected Total Games: 37.8
Predicted Winner: Novak Djokovic

Player Metrics

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 3.6
ELO Rating: 643.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1622.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.4
Clay: 5.3
Grass: 5.0
Serve Rating: 54.3
Return Rating: 71.9

Novak Djokovic

Form Index: 71.2
ELO Rating: 4780.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1890.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 100.0
Clay: 100.0
Grass: 100.0
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 93.0

Recent Matches

Pedro Martinez

  • Last Match: vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry (0-2) hard Paris 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Kamil Majchrzak (0-2) hard Basel 109 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Eliot Spizzirri (0-2) hard Brussels 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Arthur Cazaux (1-2) hard Shanghai 181 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1-2) hard Winston Salem 111 min

Novak Djokovic

  • Last Match: vs Valentin Vacherot (0-2) hard Shanghai 102 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Zizou Bergs (2-0) hard Shanghai 110 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (2-1) hard Shanghai 161 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yannick Hanfmann (2-1) hard Shanghai 162 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Marin Cilic (2-0) hard Shanghai 114 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Pedro Martinez
vs
0
Novak Djokovic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 128 at the 2026 Australian Open, Pedro Martinez will face off against Novak Djokovic on hard courts in Australia. Djokovic, ranked 4th in the world with a strong probability of winning at 74.84%, is expected to dominate the match against the 96th ranked Martinez, who has a win probability of 25.16%. The anticipated total number of games in this matchup is approximately 37.81.

Match Analysis

Analyzing the players' statistics, Novak Djokovic significantly outmatches Pedro Martinez in terms of rank, Elo rating, and form index. Djokovic's rank of 4 and Elo rating of 4780 highlight his elite status in the sport, while Martinez's rank of 96 and Elo rating of 643 indicate a stark contrast in experience and skill level. Furthermore, Djokovic's form index of 71.19 is notably higher than Martinez's 3.64, showcasing his superior recent performance. On the surface strength index, Djokovic holds a perfect 100.0 compared to Martinez's 4.42, emphasizing his mastery on hard courts. The mean serve index also favors Djokovic at 95.96 versus Martinez's 54.30, a difference of over 41 points, which is substantial. Additionally, Djokovic's mean return index of 93.01 far exceeds Martinez’s 71.93, indicating his exceptional returning capabilities. In terms of recent performances, Novak Djokovic has achieved notable success in his last three matches, winning two out of three, including a victory against Zizou Bergs. In contrast, Pedro Martinez has struggled, losing all three of his recent matches without winning a set. This disparity in form further cements Djokovic's position as the favorite for this encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 37.8 Most likely outcome: 37 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The expected total of aces in this match is approximately 26.45, alongside an anticipated 6.81 double faults. Given that hard courts provide a balanced environment for serving, both players may find moderate success with their serve. However, Djokovic's significantly higher mean serve index suggests he will likely contribute a larger portion of the aces, while the expected double faults prediction indicates that both players may need to navigate some service challenges throughout the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 26.4 Most likely: 26 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 6.8 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Novak Djokovic's extensive experience, superior statistics, and recent form give him a decisive edge over Pedro Martinez in this matchup. A key factor to watch will be Djokovic's ability to dominate with his serve, potentially leading to a high ace count and a comfortable victory.

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