Shanghai Shanghai Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Quentin Halys vs Coleman Wong Prediction

Quentin Halys

Rank: #48
48%
VS

Coleman Wong

Rank: #101
52%
Expected Total Games: 27.1
Predicted Winner: Coleman Wong

Why the Model Favors Coleman Wong

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Serve & return game +4.3 Coleman Wong
Age +2.7 Coleman Wong
Recent form +2.1 Quentin Halys
Recent record by level +1.6 Quentin Halys
Overall strength +1.6 Quentin Halys

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 52% for Coleman Wong. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Quentin Halys

  • Current #48 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #95 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #89 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #91 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #75 2025-09-29

Coleman Wong

  • Current #101 2026-10-05
  • 3 mo ago #108 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #125 2026-04-06
  • 9 mo ago #150 2026-01-05
  • 12 mo ago #160 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 39.7
ELO Rating: 1727.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1737.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.8
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 97.2
Return Rating: 85.2

Coleman Wong

Form Index: 65.1
ELO Rating: 1715.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1702.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 186.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 29.7
Clay: 8.3
Grass: 0.2
Serve Rating: 95.7
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Coleman Wong
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Lloyd Harris (2-1) hard Shanghai 117 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Cruz Hewitt (2-0) hard Shanghai 69 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniil Medvedev (1-2) hard Hangzhou 137 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Adolfo Daniel Vallejo (2-1) hard Hangzhou 152 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Zhizhen Zhang (2-0) hard Hangzhou 71 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Coleman Wong
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Coleman Wong gets a narrow lean, 52% to Quentin Halys’s 48%, with 27.1 games expected. The Shanghai Round of 128 follows two hard-court wins for Wong at this event, giving his recent run immediate relevance.

Match Analysis

Wong’s clearest advantage is the serve-and-return balance: his return is marginally stronger, while his serving is close to Halys’s. That gives him a slight edge around service games, and his age profile is another point in his favor. Halys counters with the higher ranking, No. 48 to Wong’s No. 101, plus a slight overall-strength and level-record advantage. That gives him a credible path despite Wong’s two consecutive wins in Shanghai, and helps explain why this remains close.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.1 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Quentin Halys - Coleman Wong) -0.3 Most likely spread: -1 (Coleman Wong wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Halys is projected for 11.2 aces and 3.5 double faults, compared with Wong’s 10.0 aces and 2.3 double faults. Halys’s slightly stronger serving profile supports the ace advantage, while his higher projected double-fault count suggests less security on second serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.0 Most likely: 19 aces Per player: Quentin Halys 11.2 + Coleman Wong 10.0
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 4 double faults Per player: Quentin Halys 3.5 + Coleman Wong 2.3

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Quentin Halys

Expected 11.2 aces

Coleman Wong

Expected 10.0 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Quentin Halys

Expected 3.5 double faults

Coleman Wong

Expected 2.3 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

52.2% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Quentin Halys's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Halys’s stronger serve is his best chance to change the balance. If it earns enough free points, Wong’s small return advantage may not have enough chances to tell.

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