Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Quentin Halys vs Facundo Diaz Acosta: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Quentin Halys

Rank: #52
64%
VS

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Rank: #82
36%
Expected Total Games: 39.9
Predicted Winner: Quentin Halys

Why the Model Favors Quentin Halys

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +3.9 Quentin Halys
Recent record by level +2.5 Quentin Halys
Overall record & opposition quality +2.2 Quentin Halys
Recent form +1.9 Quentin Halys
Serve & return game +1.7 Quentin Halys

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 64% for Quentin Halys. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

Also available in Claude and Perplexity. Query these predictions in plain language: our native connector lets your AI assistant call our models on demand, no code.

Set it up

Ranking Trends

Quentin Halys

  • Current #52 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #90 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #102 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #91 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #70 2025-08-25

Facundo Diaz Acosta

  • Current #82 2026-08-24
  • 3 mo ago #151 2026-05-25
  • 6 mo ago #238 2026-03-02
  • 9 mo ago #214 2025-12-01
  • 12 mo ago #256 2025-08-25

Player Metrics

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 48.5
ELO Rating: 1739.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1740.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 27.1
Clay: 28.1
Grass: 5.4
Serve Rating: 97.3
Return Rating: 84.9

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Form Index: 35.9
ELO Rating: 1527.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1519.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.1
Clay: 14.3
Grass: 1.0
Serve Rating: 93.7
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Quentin Halys
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Winston Salem 131 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Alex de Minaur (1-2) hard Cincinnati 136 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Vit Kopriva (2-0) hard Cincinnati 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Yunchaokete Bu (2-0) hard Cincinnati 92 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Soonwoo Kwon (2-1) hard Cincinnati 136 min

Facundo Diaz Acosta
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Quentin Halys
vs
0
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the 2026 US Open in New York, Round of 128 on hard courts, Quentin Halys is favored to progress. The model gives Halys a 63.89% chance to win versus Facundo Diaz Acosta at 36.11%. The match is projected to contain about 39.9 total games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Halys comes mainly from overall strength and recent record by level, with additional support from overall record and recent form. Halys carries the higher ranking and rating, listed at 52 with an Elo of 1739.7 and a form index of 48.45. Diaz Acosta sits at 82, with an Elo of 1527.5 and a lower form index of 35.91. Both players arrive fresh with zero cumulative tournament fatigue. Halys also shows a stronger surface strength index for hard courts at 27.11 versus Diaz Acosta’s 12.12, which helps explain part of the model advantage. Serve and return factors nudged the prediction toward Halys as well. Halys has a mean serve index of 97.35 and a mean return index of 84.88. Diaz Acosta’s mean serve index is 93.67 and his mean return index is 87.28. The serve gap is not large enough to be flagged as decisive by the model. Recent matches reflect mixed form for both. Halys has one win and two losses in his last three, including a hard court win over Vit Kopriva and competitive losses to Alex de Minaur and Benjamin Bonzi. Diaz Acosta has one win and two losses over his last three, with his recent results coming on clay and defeats to Alexander Bublik and Lautaro Midon around a victory over Federico Cina.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.9 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Quentin Halys - Facundo Diaz Acosta) +2.6 Most likely spread: +2 (Quentin Halys wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match totals 20.69, with predicted aces split at 13.6 for Halys and 7.64 for Diaz Acosta. The double faults prediction totals 8.63, split to 4.61 for Halys and 4.03 for Diaz Acosta. On medium-paced hard courts, these predicted aces are consistent with a match that rewards both power and return ability. Because Halys has the higher serve index, the per player predicted aces show him producing roughly 13.6 aces versus 7.64 for Diaz Acosta.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 20.7 Most likely: 19 aces Per player: Quentin Halys 13.6 + Facundo Diaz Acosta 7.6
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.6 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Quentin Halys 4.6 + Facundo Diaz Acosta 4.0

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Quentin Halys

Expected 13.6 aces

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Expected 7.6 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Quentin Halys

Expected 4.6 double faults

Facundo Diaz Acosta

Expected 4.0 double faults

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

52.2% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Quentin Halys's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (31.6%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Halys’ edge is driven primarily by overall strength in the model, reflected in his higher rank and Elo and better recent outcomes at comparable levels. Watch Halys’ serve potency early on, and whether Diaz Acosta can counter with pressure on return games to shift momentum.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel