Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper the matchup is intriguing: Jodar (rank 89) arrives with a superior form index (83.48) and higher Elo (1730.9) than Carabelli (rank 67, form 64.26, Elo 1608.2). Jodar’s surface strength index is close to Carabelli’s (roughly 40 vs 41.5), but where the contest diverges is in serve and return profiles. Carabelli’s mean serve index (98.09) dwarfs Jodar’s (60.94) by a wide margin, and his mean return index (91.94) also sits well above Jodar’s 64.39 — both differences exceed five points and will shape many service games on clay. Fatigue is a clear factor: Jodar has spent 230 minutes on court this week, while Carabelli has accumulated 455 minutes, a disparity likely to show in movement and clutch moments. Recent form tells a complementary story. Jodar has advanced through Marrakech with three straight wins, including a quick 38-minute victory over Alexandre Muller and a solid three-set win over Tomas Machac, suggesting efficient energy management. Carabelli has also progressed with three wins but via marathon encounters (match times of 166, 149 and 140 minutes), two of them three-set affairs, indicating resilience but also mounting fatigue heading into the semis.