Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 16

Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #29
57%
VS

Pablo Carreno Busta

Rank: #90
43%
Expected Total Games: 39.1
Predicted Winner: Rafael Jodar

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Ranking Trends

Rafael Jodar

  • Current #29 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #114 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #167 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #362 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Pablo Carreno Busta

  • Current #90 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #124 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #89 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #137 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #99 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 75.2
ELO Rating: 1913.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1912.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.2
Clay: 36.9
Grass: 7.4
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 90.6

Pablo Carreno Busta

Form Index: 79.9
ELO Rating: 1742.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1705.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.8
Clay: 23.8
Grass: 10.0
Serve Rating: 94.5
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Alex Michelsen (3-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs James Duckworth (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (1-2) clay Rome 188 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Learner Tien (2-0) clay Rome 75 min

Pablo Carreno Busta
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Thiago Agustin Tirante (3-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Thanasi Kokkinakis (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jiri Lehecka (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) clay Rome 72 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Damm (2-0) clay Rome 70 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Pablo Carreno Busta
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros, Paris — Round of 16 on clay at the year's second grand slam sets up a contrast of styles between Rafael Jodar and Pablo Carreño Busta. The model gives Rafael Jodar the narrow edge: 57.27% probability to win against Carreño Busta's 42.73%, with a projected 39.11 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Jodar arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 29) with an Elo of 1913.6, compared with Carreño Busta’s No. 90 ranking and 1742.4 Elo. Form indices show Carreño Busta slightly ahead (79.94) versus Jodar (75.22), but Jodar’s stronger surface strength index (36.89 to 23.79) and superior Elo suggest a clay edge. Both players report identical cumulative fatigue from this event (522 minutes on court), so recovery and physical management will be relevant late in rallies. Serving and returning profiles are similar: mean serve indices are almost identical (Jodar 94.49, Carreño Busta 94.55), while Jodar’s mean return index (90.62) is a touch higher than Carreño Busta’s (86.61). Neither side posts a large gap in serve numbers, so returns and baseline consistency should decide many exchanges. Over their last three matches at Roland Garros each has been unbeaten: Jodar progressed with a 3-0, 3-1 and a gritty 3-2 sequence, showing resilience through longer contests; Carreño Busta’s path contains a 3-0, a tight 2-1 and a 3-1 win, reflecting steady form and the ability to close out matches in pressure moments.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.1 Most likely outcome: 39 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Rafael Jodar - Pablo Carreno Busta) +0.9 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clash sits at roughly 11.04 total aces, while the expected double faults are about 6.12. Clay’s slower pace and high bounce typically suppresses ace counts and can increase errors under fatigue, so the predicted aces reflect surface realities. With near-identical serve ratings, neither player is likely to produce a markedly higher ace tally; expect the bulk of points to be decided from the baseline rather than free points on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 11.0 Most likely: 11 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Rafael Jodar's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (27.7%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Jodar’s higher ranking, stronger Elo and marginally better surface profile give him the projected edge, aided by a more potent return metric. The key factor to watch is return aggression and stamina in extended rallies — the player who consistently breaks first will likely carry this match.

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