Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

Rafael Jodar vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Rafael Jodar

Rank: #109
43%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #64
57%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Yannick Hanfmann

Ranking Trends

Rafael Jodar

  • Current Rank: #109 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #168 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #325 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #1000 (None)
  • 12 Months Ago: #901 (2025-03-03)

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current Rank: #64 (2026-03-16)
  • 3 Months Ago: #103 (2025-12-15)
  • 6 Months Ago: #134 (2025-09-15)
  • 9 Months Ago: #138 (2025-06-16)
  • 12 Months Ago: #113 (2025-03-17)

Player Metrics

Rafael Jodar

Form Index: 44.3
ELO Rating: 598.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1681.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 162.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.2
Clay: 2.2
Grass: 2.9
Serve Rating: 54.2
Return Rating: 54.3

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 64.1
ELO Rating: 801.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1583.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 235.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 5.5
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 90.1

Recent Matches

Rafael Jodar
✅ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Benjamin Bonzi (2-0) hard Miami 75 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Manas Dhamne (2-0) hard Miami 87 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Alejandro Tabilo (0-2) hard Indian Wells 58 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (1-2) hard Acapulco 101 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Cameron Norrie (2-0) hard Acapulco 55 min

Yannick Hanfmann
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Van Assche (2-1) hard Miami 159 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Leandro Riedi (2-0) hard Miami 76 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Luciano Darderi (0-2) clay Santiago 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Francisco Cerundolo (2-0) clay Santiago 84 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Vilius Gaubas (2-1) clay Santiago 132 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Rafael Jodar
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters 1000 in Florida, Round of 128 on hard courts, Yannick Hanfmann is narrowly favored to progress against Rafael Jodar. The model gives Hanfmann a 57.16% chance of winning to Jodar’s 42.84%, with an expected total of about 23.17 games in the match.

Match Analysis

On paper Hanfmann holds the upper hand: he is ranked 64 to Jodar’s 109, carries a higher Elo (801.59 vs 598.74) and posts a stronger form index (64.13 vs 44.32). Hanfmann’s surface strength index (6.70) also edges Jodar’s (3.22), although both indices are modest in absolute terms. Fatigue cuts the other way; Hanfmann has logged 235 minutes so far in the event versus Jodar’s 162, which could be relevant late in rallies or in a tight deciding set. Serve and return profiles diverge markedly. Hanfmann’s mean serve index (97.95) is far above Jodar’s (54.21) — a gap well over 5 points — and his mean return index (90.11) likewise outstrips Jodar (54.27) by a large margin. Those differences suggest Hanfmann can both hold serve comfortably and generate pressure on Jodar’s service games. Looking at recent form, Jodar arrives off two straight wins at Miami (over Bonzi and Dhamne) after a prior loss at Indian Wells; his match durations were moderate and he has momentum in this event. Hanfmann has also won his last two Miami matches, including a marathon 159-minute affair against Luca Van Assche, and fell in prior clay competition in Santiago.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match sits at an expected total of 6.72, while the double faults prediction is about 4.11 expected double faults. Hard courts typically produce a moderate number of aces compared with grass or clay; Hanfmann’s substantially higher serve rating suggests he will be the primary source of the predicted aces. Given the serve disparity, predicted aces should skew toward Hanfmann, while double faults may be limited unless fatigue becomes a factor.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s superior serve and return metrics, higher Elo and better recent form in Miami give him the edge in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be whether Hanfmann’s physical load (long previous match time) blunts his serve potency late in the encounter.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel