Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Raphael Collignon vs Aleksandar Vukic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Raphael Collignon

Rank: #64
70%
VS

Aleksandar Vukic

Rank: #100
30%
Expected Total Games: 41.3
Predicted Winner: Raphael Collignon

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Ranking Trends

Raphael Collignon

  • Current #64 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #71 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #86 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #107 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #84 2025-05-26

Aleksandar Vukic

  • Current #100 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #91 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #82 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #95 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #80 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Raphael Collignon

Form Index: 38.4
ELO Rating: 1615.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1693.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 23.3
Clay: 11.4
Grass: 7.1
Serve Rating: 95.9
Return Rating: 92.8

Aleksandar Vukic

Form Index: 30.0
ELO Rating: 1456.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1468.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.7
Clay: 3.9
Grass: 14.7
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 85.6

Recent Matches

Raphael Collignon
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) clay Geneva 87 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Adrian Mannarino (2-0) clay Geneva 89 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (1-2) hard Miami 140 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Flavio Cobolli (2-0) hard Miami 94 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Grigor Dimitrov (2-1) hard Miami 151 min

Aleksandar Vukic
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tommy Paul (0-2) clay Rome 80 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Patrick Kypson (2-1) clay Rome 119 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz (0-2) clay Madrid 77 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Otto Virtanen (1-2) clay Barcelona 151 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Pedro Martinez (0-2) clay Monte Carlo 107 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Raphael Collignon
vs
0
Aleksandar Vukic
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris, Round of 128 on clay: Raphael Collignon is favored to advance in this grand slam opener. The model gives Collignon a 70.31% chance to win versus Aleksandar Vukic at 29.69%, with a predicted total of about 41.27 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Collignon enters at world rank 64 with a higher Elo (1615.54) and a stronger form index (38.44) than Vukic, who is ranked 100 with an Elo of 1456.26 and a form index of 29.99. Both players arrive with no tournament fatigue logged. Collignon’s surface strength index on clay is 11.36 versus Vukic’s 3.93, giving Collignon a clearer comfort edge on this slow, high-bounce surface. Their mean serve indexes are nearly identical (Collignon 95.93, Vukic 96.12), so serve firepower alone should not decide the match; however Collignon’s mean return index (92.75) is notably higher than Vukic’s (85.65), a gap that favors proactive returning and pressure on serve games. Recent results back that gap: Collignon has one solid win in Geneva over Adrian Mannarino (2–0) and competitive showings in defeats to Casper Ruud (0–2 in Geneva) and Tommy Paul (1–2 in Miami). Vukic’s form is patchier — a hard-fought win over Patrick Kypson (2–1 in Rome) sits between straight-set losses to Tommy Paul (Rome) and Pablo Llamas Ruiz (Madrid). That recent pattern suggests Collignon is the steadier performer, particularly on clay.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 41.3 Most likely outcome: 41 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Raphael Collignon - Aleksandar Vukic) +1.8 Most likely spread: +1 (Raphael Collignon wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is about 16.27 total aces, while the predicted double faults sit at roughly 9.42. On clay, the expected aces count is suppressed because slower ball speed and higher bounce give returners more time; conversely, expected double faults can climb as long rallies and physical demand accumulate. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating to drastically lift the predicted aces, so the predicted aces and expected double faults reflect surface-driven tendencies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.3 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 9.4 Most likely: 9 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

39.5% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Raphael Collignon's perspective)

3-0 Most likely set score (33.9%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Collignon’s higher Elo, stronger return profile and better clay index give him the clear edge in this first-round meeting. Watch his ability to convert break opportunities — that will likely decide whether Vukic can stay competitive.

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