Washington DC, U.S.A. Hard Atp 500 Round of 64

Reilly Opelka vs Murphy Cassone Prediction

Reilly Opelka

Rank: #74
75%
VS

Murphy Cassone

Rank: #185
25%
Predicted Games Played: 23.0
Predicted Winner: Reilly Opelka

Ranking Trends

Reilly Opelka

  • Current Rank: #74 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #103 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #170 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #297 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #430 (2024-07-22)

Murphy Cassone

  • Current Rank: #185 (2025-07-21)
  • 3 Months Ago: #204 (2025-04-21)
  • 6 Months Ago: #306 (2025-01-13)
  • 9 Months Ago: #363 (2024-10-21)
  • 12 Months Ago: #896 (2024-07-22)

Player Metrics

Reilly Opelka

Form Index: 47.5
ELO Rating: 923.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1648.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 7.8
Clay: 3.6
Grass: 5.6
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 83.5

Murphy Cassone

Form Index: 51.9
ELO Rating: 230.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1561.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 134.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.5
Clay: 1.2
Grass: 1.5
Serve Rating: 95.6
Return Rating: 84.5

Recent Matches

Reilly Opelka
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Brandon Nakashima (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alexander Shevchenko (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Jakub Mensik (0-2) grass Eastbourne 86 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs George Loffhagen (2-1) grass Eastbourne 148 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Arthur Rinderknech (0-2) grass London 96 min

Murphy Cassone
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Rinky Hijikata (1-1) hard Washington 59 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Thai-Son Kwiatkowski (2-0) hard Washington 75 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Nicolas Mejia (0-2) hard Los Cabos 102 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Evan Zhu (2-1) hard Los Cabos 109 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs August Holmgren (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Reilly Opelka
vs
0
Murphy Cassone
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The upcoming match between Reilly Opelka and Murphy Cassone at the Washington tournament marks a critical encounter in the Round of 64 phase, played on hard courts. With Opelka ranked 74th and Cassone at 185th, the match leans heavily in favor of Opelka, who is predicted to win with a probability of 75.43%. Cassone's chances stand at 24.57%, and the total number of games is anticipated to be around 23.

Match Analysis

Reilly Opelka enters the match with a rank of 74 and a form index of 47.48, slightly lower than Murphy Cassone's 51.89. However, Opelka boasts a significantly higher Elo rating of 923.29 compared to Cassone's 230.39, indicating a substantial gap in overall performance levels. Opelka's fatigue is minimal at 0 minutes, while Cassone has accumulated 134 minutes of fatigue, which could impact his performance. Opelka's surface strength index of 7.81 greatly surpasses Cassone's 2.45, showcasing Opelka's better adaptation to hard surfaces. Notably, Opelka's mean serve index of 98.54 is higher than Cassone's 95.63, although the difference in their mean return indices is marginal, with Opelka at 83.46 and Cassone at 84.49. In their most recent matches, Opelka has struggled, losing two of his last three matches, including a tough defeat at Wimbledon, where he played on grass. In contrast, Cassone has shown resilience, winning his last two matches in Washington, including a hard-fought victory over Rinky Hijikata. However, his earlier loss in Los Cabos suggests inconsistency in his performance.

Final Prediction

Reilly Opelka's higher ranking, superior Elo rating, and minimal fatigue provide him with a distinct advantage going into this match. Key to watch will be Opelka's serve, as his strong serve index may lead to significant pressure on Cassone's return game, potentially dictating the flow of the match.