Francesco Maestrelli vs Rinky Hijikata: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

On paper this is a tight matchup by ranking—Maestrelli sits at No.111 and Hijikata at No.115—but the underlying numbers tell the story. Maestrelli brings a higher recent form index (64.27) compared with Hijikata (53.53), yet Hijikata leads comfortably on Elo (655.40 to 578.76). Maestrelli has logged slightly more court time in the event (253 vs 228 minutes), which could translate to marginal extra fatigue. Both players show low surface strength indices on hard (Maestrelli 2.78, Hijikata 6.28), so neither has a pronounced historical edge on this surface. The biggest disparities are in serve and return profiles. Hijikata’s mean serve index (97.38) dwarfs Maestrelli’s (42.30) by more than 50 points, and his mean return index (91.62) similarly surpasses Maestrelli’s (15.70) by a wide margin—both meaningful differentials that will shape points behind serve and in return games. Recent form is comparable: each has two wins in their last three outings at hard-court events, with Maestrelli beating Tirante and Jarry before falling to Djokovic, and Hijikata beating Buse and Riedi with a loss in Acapulco to Bellucci.