Roland Garros France Clay Grand Slam Round of 128

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #99
20%
VS

Brandon Nakashima

Rank: #33
80%
Expected Total Games: 39.0
Predicted Winner: Brandon Nakashima

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Ranking Trends

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current #99 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #85 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #92 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #47 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #49 2025-05-26

Brandon Nakashima

  • Current #33 2026-05-18
  • 3 mo ago #29 2026-02-23
  • 6 mo ago #33 2025-11-24
  • 9 mo ago #31 2025-08-25
  • 12 mo ago #32 2025-05-26

Player Metrics

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 31.0
ELO Rating: 1509.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1518.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.8
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 11.9
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 92.9

Brandon Nakashima

Form Index: 34.3
ELO Rating: 1622.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1724.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.9
Clay: 15.3
Grass: 20.5
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 84.0

Recent Matches

Roberto Bautista Agut
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

Brandon Nakashima
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

1
Roberto Bautista Agut
vs
1
Brandon Nakashima
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
1 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Roland Garros in Paris sets the scene for a Round of 128 clash on clay between veteran Roberto Bautista Agut and rising Brandon Nakashima. The model strongly favors Nakashima, with an 80.03% probability to win against Bautista Agut’s 19.97%, and a projected total of about 38.98 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Nakashima arrives ranked 33 with an Elo of 1621.98 and a form index of 34.28; Bautista Agut is down at rank 99 with an Elo of 1509.66 and a form index of 31.02. Both show zero cumulative fatigue in this event. Surface strength indices are modest for clay (Bautista Agut 10.49, Nakashima 15.28), reflecting neither player’s exceptional clay pedigree. Their mean serve indices are virtually identical (96.07 vs 96.02), so there’s no clear serving edge on paper. However Bautista Agut’s mean return index (92.91) is notably higher than Nakashima’s (83.97), a gap that could make him more effective when returning. Recent form offers a mixed picture: Bautista Agut split his last three clay matches in Europe, beating Francesco Maestrelli but losing in Madrid and falling to Nakashima in Rome (a straight-sets loss). Nakashima also showed inconsistency—he beat Bautista Agut in Rome but followed with a loss to Nikoloz Basilashvili; prior to that he dropped a tight match in Madrid. The Rome meeting is a direct data point favoring Nakashima and likely factors into the prediction.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 39.0 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roberto Bautista Agut - Brandon Nakashima) -3.8 Most likely spread: -4 (Brandon Nakashima wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this encounter is modest: predicted aces stand at about 16.58 for the match, and the double faults prediction is 6.07. Given clay’s slower, high-bouncing nature, the predicted aces tally is restrained while the expected double faults can rise as longer rallies and physical demand accumulate. With nearly identical serve ratings, no single player is expected to dominate the ace count.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.6 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.1 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.7% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Roberto Bautista Agut's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (51.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Nakashima’s higher Elo and recent head-to-head success give him the clear edge in this matchup, reflected in the 80% projected win probability. Key factor to watch: Bautista Agut’s superior return ability—if he can convert that advantage into breaks early, he can significantly extend the match beyond the projected game total.

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