Miami FL, U.S.A. Hard Masters 1000 Round of 128

James Duckworth vs Roberto Bautista Agut: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

James Duckworth

Rank: #80
41%
VS

Roberto Bautista Agut

Rank: #89
59%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Roberto Bautista Agut

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Ranking Trends

James Duckworth

  • Current #80 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #86 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #107 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #100 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #95 2025-03-17

Roberto Bautista Agut

  • Current #89 2026-03-16
  • 3 mo ago #92 2025-12-15
  • 6 mo ago #48 2025-09-15
  • 9 mo ago #51 2025-06-16
  • 12 mo ago #50 2025-03-17

Player Metrics

James Duckworth

Form Index: 15.6
ELO Rating: 686.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.5
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 80.7
Return Rating: 51.5

Roberto Bautista Agut

Form Index: 31.3
ELO Rating: 647.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1598.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.5
Clay: 7.1
Grass: 7.8
Serve Rating: 97.7
Return Rating: 90.2

Recent Matches

James Duckworth
❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

Roberto Bautista Agut
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
James Duckworth
vs
0
Roberto Bautista Agut
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Miami Masters 1000 in Florida, Round of 128 on outdoor hard courts, Roberto Bautista Agut is narrowly favoured to progress. The model gives Bautista Agut a 59.05% chance to win versus James Duckworth’s 40.95%, with an expected total of about 23.24 games in the match.

Match Analysis

James Duckworth arrives ranked 80 with an Elo of 686.07, a strong mean serve index (80.74) but a modest surface strength index (3.54) and a form index of 15.64; he shows no accumulated fatigue on site. Roberto Bautista Agut, ranked 89 with a slightly lower Elo (647.18), posts a far higher mean serve index (97.69) and an exceptional mean return index (90.15), with a surface strength index of 6.46 and a higher form index (31.27). The gap in serve (≈17 points) and especially return (≈39 points) is notable and favours Bautista Agut’s consistency from the baseline and ability to pressure opponents’ service games. Recent results underline that Duckworth has struggled — three straight losses in recent hard-court matches, each in straight sets and without match wins. Bautista Agut’s recent form is mixed but more resilient: a win two matches ago at Indian Wells followed by a narrow loss to Jack Draper, indicating he can still grind through longer matches. Both players show freshness (0 minutes fatigue) so early-match intensity should be high.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (James Duckworth - Roberto Bautista Agut) -0.6 Most likely spread: -1 (Roberto Bautista Agut wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 10.95 for the match and the double faults prediction at roughly 5.02. On hard courts, predicted aces are moderate and expected double faults remain low-to-moderate; the surface typically rewards both servers and returners. Given Bautista Agut’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to contribute a larger share of the predicted aces, while double faults are expected to be limited from both players.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.9 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.0 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bautista Agut’s superior serve and especially his much stronger return metrics give him the edge in what should be a relatively short hard-court encounter. Watch the early service holds and return games — the player who breaks first will likely carry the match.

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