Us Open NY, U.S.A. Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris Prediction

Sebastian Baez

Rank: #43
66%
VS

Lloyd Harris

Rank: #376
34%
Predicted Games Played: 38.0
Predicted Winner: Sebastian Baez

Ranking Trends

Sebastian Baez

  • Current Rank: #43 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #38 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #31 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #27 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #23 (2024-08-26)

Lloyd Harris

  • Current Rank: #376 (2025-08-04)
  • 3 Months Ago: #227 (2025-05-26)
  • 6 Months Ago: #141 (2025-02-24)
  • 9 Months Ago: #132 (2024-11-25)
  • 12 Months Ago: #103 (2024-08-26)

Player Metrics

Sebastian Baez

Form Index: 34.2
ELO Rating: 996.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1606.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.4
Clay: 9.1
Grass: 13.4
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 89.8

Lloyd Harris

Form Index: 83.3
ELO Rating: 658.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1557.8
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.9
Clay: 4.5
Grass: 5.9
Serve Rating: 94.9
Return Rating: 86.4

Recent Matches

Sebastian Baez
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (1-1) hard Winston Salem 109 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Pablo Carreno Busta (2-0) hard Winston Salem 107 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Gabriel Diallo (0-2) hard Cincinnati 91 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs David Goffin (2-0) hard Cincinnati 76 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yannick Hanfmann (1-2) clay Kitzbuhel 162 min

Lloyd Harris
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Merida (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Fajing Sun (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Evans (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Leandro Riedi (0-2) hard Cincinnati 96 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Eliot Spizzirri (2-1) hard Cincinnati 150 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Sebastian Baez
vs
0
Lloyd Harris
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first round of the US Open sees Sebastian Baez facing off against Lloyd Harris on hard courts in New York. With a predicted winner of Sebastian Baez, he holds a 65.63% probability of winning against Harris's 34.37%. The forecasted total number of games for this match is approximately 38.

Match Analysis

Sebastian Baez, currently ranked 43rd, comes into this match with a form index of 34.22 and an Elo rating of 996.67. His fatigue level is at zero, indicating he has no cumulative wear from this tournament. Baez also boasts a strong surface strength index of 9.44, along with a mean serve index of 96.59 and a mean return index of 89.81. This suggests that he possesses a significant advantage in both serving and returning, particularly as his mean serve index exceeds Harris's by more than 5 points. On the other hand, Lloyd Harris, ranked 376th, has a form index of 83.31 and an Elo rating of 658.65. However, he carries a considerable fatigue level of 522 minutes from previous matches in the tournament, which may hinder his performance. His surface strength index stands at a lower 4.86, with a mean serve index of 94.94 and a mean return index of 86.35, both of which are less effective compared to Baez's statistics. In his recent performances, Harris has won all three of his last matches at the US Open, while Baez has had mixed results, winning two and losing one in his last three outings.

Final Prediction

Sebastian Baez’s overall ranking, solid performance metrics, and lack of fatigue give him a distinct edge over Lloyd Harris, who is grappling with fatigue from prior matches. A critical factor to monitor will be Baez's ability to maintain his serve effectiveness, which could dictate the pace and flow of the match.