Dubai U.A.E. Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Stan Wawrinka vs Benjamin Hassan: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #99
55%
VS

Benjamin Hassan

Rank: #289
45%
Expected Total Games: 23.9
Predicted Winner: Stan Wawrinka

Player Metrics

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 42.6
ELO Rating: 510.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1546.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.2
Clay: 2.6
Grass: 3.3
Serve Rating: 66.9
Return Rating: 48.1

Benjamin Hassan

Form Index: 58.2
ELO Rating: 231.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1526.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.4
Clay: 2.7
Grass: 2.7
Serve Rating: 93.4
Return Rating: 88.1

Recent Matches

Stan Wawrinka

  • Last Match: vs Alex de Minaur (0-2) hard Rotterdam 69 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Thijs Boogaard (2-0) hard Rotterdam 82 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Felix Auger-Aliassime (0-2) hard Montpellier 107 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Hamad Medjedovic (2-0) hard Montpellier 98 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Taylor Fritz (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min

Benjamin Hassan

  • Last Match: vs Jaime Faria (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Matej Dodig (2-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Martin Damm (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Tomas Barrios Vera (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Filip Misolic (1-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stan Wawrinka
vs
0
Benjamin Hassan
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 match in Dubai, U.A.E., on hard courts at an atp_500-level event pits veteran Stan Wawrinka against Benjamin Hassan. The model backs Wawrinka to win with a 54.96% probability versus 45.04% for Hassan, and projects a relatively short contest of about 23.87 total games.

Match Analysis

Wawrinka enters ranked 99 with an Elo of 510.81 and a form index of 42.58; his fatigue is 0.0 minutes on court and his surface strength index on hard is 3.21. Hassan is ranked 289 with a much lower Elo of 231.58 but a higher form index at 58.17 and likewise zero fatigue; his hard-court surface strength index is 2.41. There are notable disparities in the underlying skill indices: Hassan’s mean serve index (93.43) is substantially higher than Wawrinka’s (66.90), and his mean return index (88.14) also exceeds Wawrinka’s (48.13) by a wide margin — both differences are greater than five points and will shape tactical match-ups. Looking at recent form, Wawrinka’s last three matches on hard show two losses (to Alex de Minaur in Rotterdam and Felix Auger-Aliassime in Montpellier) and a win over Thijs Boogaard, indicating mixed results against top opposition. Hassan’s most recent trio of hard-court outings includes a win over Matej Dodig and two losses (to Jaime Faria and Martin Damm), with long match durations noted in those events. Both players have been competing on hard surfaces in their recent matches, so current form is informed by similar conditions.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.9 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this match is 10.06 total and the expected double faults are 5.63. On a medium-paced hard court with consistent bounce, predicted aces are moderate compared with faster surfaces; the expected double faults reflect some risk-taking on serve. Given Hassan’s significantly higher serve rating, he is likely to drive the higher share of the predicted aces, while both players contribute to the expected double faults.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.1 Most likely: 10 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.6 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Wawrinka’s edge comes from higher ranking and Elo despite Hassan’s superior serve and return indices and stronger recent form — the model slightly favors Wawrinka overall. The key factor to watch is how effectively Hassan’s serving and returning metrics translate into free points and pressure on Wawrinka’s service games.

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