Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 32

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur Rinderknech: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #33
43%
VS

Arthur Rinderknech

Rank: #31
57%
Expected Total Games: 24.0
Predicted Winner: Arthur Rinderknech

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Ranking Trends

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Current #33 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #34 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #29 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #11 2025-02-10

Arthur Rinderknech

  • Current #31 2026-02-02
  • 3 mo ago #29 2025-11-10
  • 6 mo ago #70 2025-08-04
  • 9 mo ago #75 2025-05-05
  • 12 mo ago #65 2025-02-10

Player Metrics

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 18.9
ELO Rating: 1301.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1811.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.0
Clay: 9.8
Grass: 9.8
Serve Rating: 73.4
Return Rating: 40.4

Arthur Rinderknech

Form Index: 21.5
ELO Rating: 1428.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1590.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 12.4
Clay: 10.0
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 98.7
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Stefanos Tsitsipas
❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Shintaro Mochizuki (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Aleksandar Vukic (0-2) hard Adelaide 113 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Yunchaokete Bu (0-2) hard Winston Salem 88 min

Arthur Rinderknech
❌ ❌ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
vs
0
Arthur Rinderknech
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Stefanos Tsitsipas meets Arthur Rinderknech in the round of 32 in Rotterdam, Netherlands, on indoor hard courts at an ATP 500-level event. The model favors Rinderknech to win (57.28% vs 42.72% for Tsitsipas) with a predicted total of about 23.97 games for the match.

Match Analysis

Tsitsipas arrives ranked 33 with an Elo of 1301.43, a form index of 18.86 and no tournament fatigue. His surface strength index sits at 9.01, while his mean serve index (73.35) is solid compared with his mean return index (40.36). Recent results show inconsistency: a first-round loss and a win at the Australian Open mixed with an earlier loss in Adelaide indicate uneven form in his last three outings. Rinderknech is ranked 31 with a higher Elo of 1428.86 and a slightly better form index of 21.51, also reporting zero fatigue. His surface strength index is 12.39. Notably, Rinderknech’s mean serve index (98.74) is markedly higher than Tsitsipas’s, and his mean return index (88.72) far exceeds Tsitsipas’s—both differences exceed 5 points and favor Rinderknech emphatically. Recent match outcomes show three straight defeats on paper, but those results alone don’t capture his service and return potential indicated by the indices.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.0 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stefanos Tsitsipas - Arthur Rinderknech) -2.1 Most likely spread: -3 (Arthur Rinderknech wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court clash is 10.57 total, and the predicted aces skew toward the player with the superior serve index. Expected double faults for the match are 4.47. On a medium-paced hard court, these predicted aces are moderate: the surface allows big servers to prosper but does not inflate ace totals as grass would. Given Rinderknech’s significantly higher serve rating, he should be the main driver of the predicted ace count; double faults prediction remains modest.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 10.6 Most likely: 10 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.5 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Rinderknech’s advantage in both serving and returning metrics, plus a higher Elo, underpin his edge in the projection. The key factor to watch is Rinderknech’s serve performance—if he sustains that level, it should determine whether the match follows the model’s expectation.

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