Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 32

Stan Wawrinka vs Taylor Fritz: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Stan Wawrinka

Rank: #139
16%
VS

Taylor Fritz

Rank: #9
84%
Expected Total Games: 36.9
Predicted Winner: Taylor Fritz

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Ranking Trends

Stan Wawrinka

  • Current #139 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #158 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #156 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #158 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #156 2025-01-13

Taylor Fritz

  • Current #9 2026-01-12
  • 3 mo ago #4 2025-10-20
  • 6 mo ago #4 2025-07-21
  • 9 mo ago #4 2025-04-21
  • 12 mo ago #4 2025-01-13

Player Metrics

Stan Wawrinka

Form Index: 78.6
ELO Rating: 480.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1543.2
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.7
Clay: 2.5
Grass: 2.5
Serve Rating: 65.5
Return Rating: 62.3

Taylor Fritz

Form Index: 81.1
ELO Rating: 3840.0
Glicko2 Rating: 2035.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 348.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.1
Clay: 29.6
Grass: 33.8
Serve Rating: 98.5
Return Rating: 92.5

Recent Matches

Stan Wawrinka
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Gea (3-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Laslo Djere (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Casper Ruud (0-2) hard Basel 101 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Miomir Kecmanovic (2-0) hard Basel 82 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (1-2) hard Shanghai 106 min

Taylor Fritz
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Stan Wawrinka
vs
0
Taylor Fritz
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 32 at the Australian Open 2026, Stan Wawrinka faces off against Taylor Fritz on hard courts, a surface that balances serving and returning strengths. The prediction favors Taylor Fritz as the likely winner, with an 83.74% probability of victory compared to Wawrinka's 16.26%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 36.85, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.

Match Analysis

Stan Wawrinka, currently ranked 139, has shown resilience but has experienced fluctuating form, reflected in a form index of 78.63. His Elo rating stands at 480.70, indicating he is operating at a lower competitive level compared to his peak. Wawrinka's cumulative fatigue from the tournament is notable at 348 minutes, which may impact his performance. His surface strength index of 2.72 and mean serve index of 65.53 suggest he is struggling to find his optimal game on hard courts. In contrast, Taylor Fritz is ranked 9, with a form index of 81.10 and an impressive Elo rating of 3840.00. Fritz also shares the same cumulative fatigue of 348 minutes, but his superior surface strength index of 24.14 and mean serve index of 98.50 indicate he is more adept at utilizing the hard court surface effectively. Recent performances reveal that Wawrinka has won two of his last three matches, including a challenging encounter against Arthur Gea, while Fritz has also won his last three matches convincingly, including a dominant win over Vit Kopriva. This trend reinforces the expectation that Fritz will maintain his strong form against Wawrinka.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 36.9 Most likely outcome: 36 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Stan Wawrinka - Taylor Fritz) +0.4 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

With expected total aces in the match projected at 15.35 and expected double faults at 3.91, this contest should see a fair amount of serving prowess, particularly benefiting Fritz due to his significantly higher mean serve index. The hard court surface generally lends itself to a balanced distribution of aces, allowing both players to capitalize on their service games. However, Fritz's superior serving capability may lead to a higher ace count compared to Wawrinka.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.3 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 3.9 Most likely: 3 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Taylor Fritz's advantage lies in his higher ranking, better form, and superior serve metrics, giving him a distinct edge going into this match. A crucial factor to watch will be how effectively Wawrinka can handle Fritz's strong serve, as this could determine the momentum of the match early on.

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