Toronto Canada Hard Masters 1000 Round of 32

Alexei Popyrin vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Alexei Popyrin

Rank: #103
47%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #64
53%
Expected Total Games: 24.6
Predicted Winner: Thiago Agustin Tirante

Why the Model Favors Thiago Agustin Tirante

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall record & opposition quality +3.5 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Serve & return game +2.1 Alexei Popyrin
Surface fit +1.1 Alexei Popyrin
Overall strength +1.0 Thiago Agustin Tirante
Recent form +0.9 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 53% for Thiago Agustin Tirante. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Alexei Popyrin

  • Current #103 2026-07-27
  • 3 mo ago #60 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #51 2026-02-02
  • 9 mo ago #53 2025-11-03
  • 12 mo ago #19 2025-08-04

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Current #64 2026-07-27
  • 3 mo ago #69 2026-05-04
  • 6 mo ago #95 2026-02-02
  • 9 mo ago #100 2025-11-03
  • 12 mo ago #135 2025-08-04

Player Metrics

Alexei Popyrin

Form Index: 46.3
ELO Rating: 1637.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1655.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 274.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 19.5
Clay: 24.7
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 97.1
Return Rating: 84.7

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 61.2
ELO Rating: 1754.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1771.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 209.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 25.1
Clay: 28.5
Grass: 6.2
Serve Rating: 96.0
Return Rating: 87.3

Recent Matches

Alexei Popyrin
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

Thiago Agustin Tirante
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Taylor Fritz (2-0) hard Toronto 88 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Duncan Chan (2-1) hard Toronto 121 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Nikoloz Basilashvili (2-1) clay Bastad 164 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Sebastian Ofner (2-0) clay Bastad 93 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Fabian Marozsan (0-3) grass Wimbledon 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Alexei Popyrin
vs
0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At the Toronto masters 1000 on hard courts, Round of 32 pits Alexei Popyrin against Thiago Agustin Tirante in a matchup between a big-hitting serve/return player and a rising, more consistent baseliner. The model favors Tirante to win (53.04%) over Popyrin (46.96%), with an expected total of roughly 24.6 games in the match — suggesting a straight-sets outcome is slightly more likely than a three-setter.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Tirante stems primarily from overall record and opposition quality, reflected in his higher Elo (1754.8 vs 1637.3) and stronger recent results against tougher opponents; that driver adds about 3.5 percentage points to his chance. Tirante also gains small bumps from overall strength and recent form (+1.0 and +0.9 points respectively), and his surface strength index (25.12 vs Popyrin’s 19.47) is modestly superior on hard courts. Popyrin’s strengths show up in serve and return metrics — the model credits him with a serve/return edge (+2.1 points) and slightly better mean serve index (97.09 vs 95.98) and solid return index (84.72). Fatigue is a factor: Popyrin has logged 274 minutes already this week versus Tirante’s 209, which could tilt tight moments toward Tirante late in matches. Both players arrive in very similar vein form-wise: each has won their last three matches in this event, with Popyrin recording two longer matches (including a 132-minute affair) and Tirante posting an 88-minute win over a strong opponent.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.6 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Alexei Popyrin - Thiago Agustin Tirante) +0.2 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

This is an aces prediction for a medium-paced hard court: the match has predicted aces around 14.09 and an expected double faults tally near 5.79. Hard courts tend to balance serve potency and return play, so predicted aces reflect both players’ strong serve indices rather than an extreme serving surface. Neither player’s serve rating is significantly higher, so the ace count should be split rather than dominated by one man.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 14.1 Most likely: 14 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.8 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

49.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Alexei Popyrin's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (29.5%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Tirante’s narrow edge comes chiefly from the model’s assessment of overall record and opposition quality, supported by a higher Elo and fresher legs. Key factor to watch: fatigue versus return steadiness late in sets — if Popyrin’s earlier minutes catch up with him, Tirante’s consistency should decide the pivotal games.

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