Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tomas Machac

Rank: #35
62%
VS

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Rank: #33
38%
Expected Total Games: 38.2
Predicted Winner: Tomas Machac

Player Metrics

Tomas Machac

Form Index: 79.5
ELO Rating: 1486.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1698.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.1
Clay: 9.2
Grass: 9.6
Serve Rating: 59.3
Return Rating: 40.9

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Form Index: 36.3
ELO Rating: 1318.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1815.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.2
Clay: 10.9
Grass: 11.0
Serve Rating: 97.6
Return Rating: 92.2

Recent Matches

Tomas Machac

  • Last Match: vs Grigor Dimitrov (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Ugo Humbert (2-1) hard Adelaide 143 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Tommy Paul (2-1) hard Adelaide 111 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Jaume Munar (2-0) hard Adelaide 90 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Quentin Halys (2-0) hard Adelaide 74 min

Stefanos Tsitsipas

  • Last Match: vs Shintaro Mochizuki (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (0-2) hard Adelaide 113 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Daniel Altmaier (2-3) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Yunchaokete Bu (0-2) hard Winston Salem 88 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Benjamin Bonzi (1-2) hard Cincinnati 159 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tomas Machac
vs
0
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The match between Tomas Machac and Stefanos Tsitsipas takes place in the Round of 64 at the 2026 Australian Open, held on a hard court surface. Machac is favored to win with a probability of 62.39%, while Tsitsipas has a 37.61% chance of victory. The expected total number of games in the match is approximately 38.22.

Match Analysis

Tomas Machac, currently ranked 35th, has been showcasing impressive form with a form index of 79.45 and an Elo rating of 1486.84. He has managed to maintain a cumulative fatigue level of 174 minutes and has a surface strength index of 10.12. Contrarily, Stefanos Tsitsipas is ranked slightly higher at 33rd, but his performance has dipped significantly, reflected in a lower form index of 36.34 and an Elo rating of 1318.89. Both players share the same fatigue level, but Machac’s superior form index indicates he may be in better shape for this matchup. Notably, Machac's mean serve index of 59.35 is significantly lower than Tsitsipas's impressive 97.65; however, Tsitsipas's mean return index of 92.25 is also markedly higher than Machac's return index of 40.93. In their recent performances, Machac has won all three of his last matches, including a dominant victory over Grigor Dimitrov in the Australian Open. In contrast, Tsitsipas has struggled, with only one win in his last three matches, including a disappointing loss to Aleksandar Vukic in Adelaide. This stark difference in recent form further solidifies Machac's edge heading into this encounter.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.2 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 16.48 aces, which is a moderate tally for hard courts, where both strong servers and returners find success. Given Tsitsipas’s superior serve rating, he might contribute a higher number of aces to the expected count. The predicted double faults for the match stand at 5.44, which is a reasonable figure and aligns well with the hard court surface where players often find a balance between aggressive serving and consistency.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.5 Most likely: 16 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.4 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Tomas Machac's recent form and superior performance metrics give him a notable advantage over Stefanos Tsitsipas in this matchup. The key factor to watch will be how Machac handles Tsitsipas’s serve, particularly given the latter's higher serve rating, which could influence the match dynamics significantly.

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