Buenos Aires Argentina Clay Atp 250 Round of 16

Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rank: #118
31%
VS

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Rank: #54
69%
Expected Total Games: 22.1
Predicted Winner: Tomas Martin Etcheverry

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Player Metrics

Roman Andres Burruchaga

Form Index: 52.3
ELO Rating: 572.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1541.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 79.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.9
Clay: 4.2
Grass: 4.3
Serve Rating: 53.7
Return Rating: 99.7

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Form Index: 52.8
ELO Rating: 951.7
Glicko2 Rating: 1633.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 98.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 9.1
Clay: 9.3
Grass: 7.3
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 90.4

Recent Matches

Roman Andres Burruchaga

  • Last Match: vs Laslo Djere (2-0) clay Buenos Aires 79 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Arthur Gea (0-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Ryan Peniston (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Shintaro Mochizuki (1-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Justin Engel (2-1) hard Us Open 174 min

Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Roman Andres Burruchaga
vs
0
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 16 in Buenos Aires (Argentina), played on clay at a 250-level event, features Roman Andres Burruchaga against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The model favors Etcheverry (68.93%) over Burruchaga (31.07%), with a projected total of about 22.09 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Etcheverry arrives with the higher ranking (No. 54 vs No. 118) and a substantially stronger Elo (951.67 vs 572.77), signaling a clear class advantage in the underlying ratings. Both players show similar recent form indices (roughly 52), but Etcheverry carries more cumulative court time this week (98 minutes vs 79 minutes), which could influence physical sharpness later in rallies. Surface strength indices are low for both on the 0–100 proprietary scale, with Etcheverry at 9.27 and Burruchaga at 4.16, indicating neither has a dominant clay profile in the dataset. Serve and return profiles diverge markedly: Etcheverry’s mean serve index (97.83) is far higher than Burruchaga’s (53.69), a difference well above five points that suggests Etcheverry is the significantly stronger server in this matchup. Burruchaga, meanwhile, posts an exceptionally high mean return index (99.70) compared to Etcheverry’s 90.37, another gap exceeding five points, so return proficiency will be a key tactical battleground. Over their last three matches, Burruchaga is 2–1 with wins including a straight-sets Buenos Aires result versus Laslo Djere; Etcheverry is also 2–1, having won his Buenos Aires opener in straight sets but suffered a straight-set loss to Alexander Bublik earlier in the season.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 22.1 Most likely outcome: 22 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Roman Andres Burruchaga versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Roman Andres Burruchaga versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Roman Andres Burruchaga - Tomas Martin Etcheverry) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Roman Andres Burruchaga versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Positive values indicate Roman Andres Burruchaga winning more games, negative values indicate Tomas Martin Etcheverry winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Roman Andres Burruchaga versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction: the match is expected to produce about 19.38 aces overall, and the predicted aces skew toward Etcheverry given his much higher serve rating. Double faults prediction: total expected double faults sit near 5.72. On clay, slower speed and higher bounce typically suppress ace totals and can increase the likelihood of unforced serving errors late in rallies, so the expected double faults may rise as fatigue accumulates.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 19.4 Most likely: 19 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Roman Andres Burruchaga versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Roman Andres Burruchaga versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Roman Andres Burruchaga versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Roman Andres Burruchaga versus Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Etcheverry’s superior Elo, ranking and dominant serve index give him the edge in this clay Round of 16 encounter. Watch the interplay between Etcheverry’s serve power and Burruchaga’s elite return numbers—who wins the return games will likely determine the match outcome.

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