Tommy Paul vs Aleksandar Vukic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Paul arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 18) with an Elo of 1832.7 and a stronger recent form index (41.45) compared with Vukic (rank 99, Elo 1462.1, form 26.44). Paul’s surface strength index on clay (39.46) is materially higher than Vukic’s very low 3.29, indicating a clear comfort advantage on this slow, high-bounce court. Fatigue is another differentiator: Paul enters fresh with 0 minutes on court in Rome, while Vukic carries 119 minutes already, which could matter late in rallies and tight games. Serve and return profiles point to Paul’s edge in neutralizing opponents: their mean serve indices are close (difference under 5 points), so neither should dominate with outright serving power, but Paul’s mean return index (91.37) is meaningfully better than Vukic’s (85.56), which suggests Paul will generate more break opportunities. Recently, Paul has two wins in Houston (including a notable victory over Frances Tiafoe) before a loss in Madrid to Tirante; Vukic has a confidence-boosting 119-minute win in Rome over Patrick Kypson but had two prior losses in Madrid and Barcelona. Overall, Paul’s combination of return quality, higher clay comfort, and freshness underpins the prediction.