Wimbledon Great Britain Grass Grand Slam Round of 64

Soonwoo Kwon vs Tommy Paul: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Soonwoo Kwon

Rank: #200
8%
VS

Tommy Paul

Rank: #25
92%
Expected Total Games: 42.5
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Why the Model Favors Tommy Paul

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +12.2 Tommy Paul
Surface fit +11.2 Tommy Paul
Recent record by level +10.4 Tommy Paul
Serve & return game +4.0 Tommy Paul
Fatigue & recent workload +1.7 Tommy Paul

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 92% for Tommy Paul. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Soonwoo Kwon

  • Current #200 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #333 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #486 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #478 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Tommy Paul

  • Current #25 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #21 2026-03-30
  • 6 mo ago #20 2025-12-29
  • 9 mo ago #15 2025-09-29
  • 12 mo ago #13 2025-06-30

Player Metrics

Soonwoo Kwon

Form Index: 67.9
ELO Rating: 1680.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1891.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 696.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.7
Clay: 10.5
Grass: 18.1
Serve Rating: 90.6
Return Rating: 93.5

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 65.2
ELO Rating: 1842.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1888.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 36.7
Clay: 37.5
Grass: 23.4
Serve Rating: 96.1
Return Rating: 89.6

Recent Matches

Soonwoo Kwon
✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Martin Landaluce (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Alejandro Moro Canas (3-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Gea (2-1) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo (2-0) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Tommy Paul
✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Soonwoo Kwon
vs
0
Tommy Paul
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Wimbledon in Great Britain, round of 64 on grass, Tommy Paul is heavily favored to advance in this Grand Slam meeting with Soonwoo Kwon. The model projects Paul to win with a 92.44% probability to Kwon’s 7.56%, and forecasts a relatively short match with an expected total of 42.52 games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Paul comes mainly from overall strength (+12.2 percentage points), surface fit (+11.2) and recent record by level (+10.4). Those drivers are visible in the raw numbers: Paul’s Elo (1842.3) and world rank (25) sit well above Kwon’s Elo (1680.2) and rank (200), signalling a clear quality gap. Paul’s slightly lower form index (65.24 vs Kwon’s 67.92) is outweighed by his superior season-long metrics and grass suitability. Surface strength indices favor Paul (23.44 to Kwon’s 18.15), consistent with the model’s surface-fit lift. Serve and return dynamics add further support (+4.0 to Paul). Paul’s mean serve index (96.12) exceeds Kwon’s (90.59) by more than 5 points, which matters a lot on fast grass; the mean return index gap is under 5 points, so returns are a more even contest. Fatigue also nudges the projection toward Paul (+1.7): Kwon arrives with heavy match minutes at this event (696 cumulative minutes) versus Paul’s relatively light 174, making Kwon’s legs a practical concern late in rallies and matches. Looking at recent matches, Kwon has won three straight at this venue (two 3-0 results and a 2-1), while Paul arrives with a win in his last Wimbledon match but a mixed set of results prior (one earlier loss and another win).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 42.5 Most likely outcome: 42 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Soonwoo Kwon - Tommy Paul) -6.1 Most likely spread: -7 (Tommy Paul wins 7 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for the match is 16.15 total, with an expected double faults total of 7.3. On grass—where the ball stays low and serve speed is rewarded—higher ace counts are typical, and Paul’s notably stronger serve rating should push the predicted aces upward. Given the serve gap, expect Paul to be the primary source of the match’s aces; the expected double faults number suggests both players may play aggressively on serve.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 16.1 Most likely: 16 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.3 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

42.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO5

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Soonwoo Kwon's perspective)

0-3 Most likely set score (60.3%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Paul’s advantage is rooted first and foremost in overall strength (the top model key factor) and a better fit to grass. The key item to watch is Paul’s serve effectiveness—if it fires, this match is likely to be short and tilted decisively in his favor.

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