Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 64

Tommy Paul vs Thiago Agustin Tirante: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Tommy Paul

Rank: #21
77%
VS

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Rank: #102
23%
Expected Total Games: 38.9
Predicted Winner: Tommy Paul

Player Metrics

Tommy Paul

Form Index: 70.4
ELO Rating: 1881.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1809.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 13.7
Clay: 17.1
Grass: 14.5
Serve Rating: 58.5
Return Rating: 57.3

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Form Index: 68.2
ELO Rating: 631.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1554.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 174.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 20.2
Clay: 13.1
Grass: 15.3
Serve Rating: 96.8
Return Rating: 93.4

Recent Matches

Tommy Paul

  • Last Match: vs Aleksandar Kovacevic (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Tomas Machac (1-2) hard Adelaide 111 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (2-0) hard Adelaide 62 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Reilly Opelka (2-0) hard Adelaide 71 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (1-2) hard Brisbane 131 min

Thiago Agustin Tirante

  • Last Match: vs Aleksandar Vukic (3-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Andrea Vavassori (0-2) hard Adelaide 83 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Jesper de Jong (2-1) hard Adelaide 124 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Zsombor Piros (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Jack Kennedy (2-0) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Tommy Paul
vs
0
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

In the Round of 64 at the Australian Open, Tommy Paul is set to face Thiago Agustin Tirante on hard courts in Australia. Given Paul's higher rank and form, he is predicted to win with a probability of 77.19%, while Tirante’s chances stand at 22.81%. The match is expected to feature a total of approximately 39 games.

Match Analysis

Tommy Paul enters this match ranked 21st, showcasing a solid form index of 70.35. His Elo rating of 1881 indicates a strong competitive level, and he has a surface strength index of 13.72, reflecting his adaptability on hard courts. With a mean serve index of 58.46 and a mean return index of 57.26, Paul demonstrates balanced skills in both serving and returning. In contrast, Thiago Agustin Tirante ranks 102nd, with a slightly lower form index of 68.24 and a significantly lower Elo rating of 631.63. Tirante's surface strength index is higher at 20.21, indicating he performs well on hard courts, but his mean serve index of 96.80 and mean return index of 93.44 highlight that he excels in serving and returning, respectively. Notably, the difference in mean serve index between the two players exceeds 5 points, suggesting Paul's serve may not be as effective as Tirante's. Reviewing their recent performances, Tommy Paul has shown mixed results, winning his last match convincingly against Aleksandar Kovacevic but losing to Tomas Machac in the previous event. Tirante, however, has also shown resilience, having won his last match decisively against Aleksandar Vukic while struggling against Andrea Vavassori before that. Both players carry the same level of fatigue from their matches, indicating they are operating under similar physical conditions.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.9 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 6.72 aces, which aligns with the nature of hard courts that favor both servers and returners. The expected double faults prediction stands at around 4.11, reflecting the pressure that may arise during the match. Given Tirante's superior mean serve index, he could potentially dominate the ace count, while both players may struggle with double faults depending on their performance under pressure.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 6.7 Most likely: 6 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.1 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Final Prediction

Tommy Paul holds a significant advantage due to his higher rank and recent match performance, which suggests he is in a better position to control the match dynamics. However, the key factor to watch will be how effectively Tirante utilizes his serving strength to challenge Paul’s return game, particularly in tight moments of the match.

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