Rotterdam Netherlands Hard Atp 500 Round of 16

Ugo Humbert vs Guy Den Ouden: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #38
68%
VS

Guy Den Ouden

Rank: #162
32%
Expected Total Games: 23.1
Predicted Winner: Ugo Humbert

Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current Rank: #38 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #37 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #25 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #22 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #17 (2025-02-10)

Guy Den Ouden

  • Current Rank: #162 (2026-02-02)
  • 3 Months Ago: #161 (2025-11-10)
  • 6 Months Ago: #157 (2025-08-04)
  • 9 Months Ago: #225 (2025-05-05)
  • 12 Months Ago: #340 (2025-02-10)

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 44.6
ELO Rating: 1509.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1772.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 142.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.8
Clay: 8.9
Grass: 9.4
Serve Rating: 79.1
Return Rating: 41.1

Guy Den Ouden

Form Index: 17.3
ELO Rating: 411.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1515.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 111.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 3.4
Clay: 3.2
Grass: 3.2
Serve Rating: 94.0
Return Rating: 91.1

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Daniil Medvedev (2-1) hard Rotterdam 142 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Adrian Mannarino (1-2) hard Montpellier 167 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Botic van de Zandschulp (2-0) hard Montpellier 72 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Ben Shelton (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Tomas Machac (1-2) hard Adelaide 143 min

Guy Den Ouden
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Marton Fucsovics (2-0) hard Rotterdam 111 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Pierre-Hugues Herbert (1-2) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Daniel Elahi Galan (0-2) hard Us Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Filip Misolic (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Lukas Klein (1-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
0
Guy Den Ouden
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Rotterdam, Netherlands — round of 16 on indoor hard at a 500-level event. Ugo Humbert is the projected winner with a 67.83% probability against Guy Den Ouden (32.17%), and the model expects about 23.1 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Humbert enters ranked 38 with an Elo of 1509.75 and a form index of 44.58; his surface strength index is modest (10.77) and he has recorded 142 minutes of court time in this tournament. Den Ouden is ranked 162 with a much lower Elo (411.88) and form index (17.33), a surface strength index of 3.42 and 111 minutes played so far. There is a notable service/return split: Den Ouden’s mean serve index (94.01) is substantially higher than Humbert’s (79.08) by roughly 15 points, while Den Ouden’s mean return index (91.10) far exceeds Humbert’s (41.12), a difference close to 50 points — both differences are material to expected dynamics. Recent form lines show Humbert coming off a strong win over Daniil Medvedev in Rotterdam and a mixed two-match sequence in Montpellier (one win, one loss), with relatively heavy recent minutes. Den Ouden has momentum from a straight-sets win over Marton Fucsovics in Rotterdam but had two tougher outings in Grand Slam-level matches earlier (losses to Herbert and Galan), including long three-set affairs. Those results reflect Humbert’s higher-ranked consistency versus Den Ouden’s capacity to serve aggressively and produce upsets.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.1 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this hard-court match is about 15.9 total aces; predicted aces are likely to skew toward Den Ouden given his substantially higher serve index. Expected double faults are 5.94 for the match; the hard surface’s medium pace typically produces a moderate number of aces and double faults compared with grass or clay. With Den Ouden’s serve rating markedly higher, expect him to influence the overall ace count more than Humbert.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 15.9 Most likely: 15 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.9 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Humbert’s higher rank, Elo and recent win over a top opponent give him the edge despite Den Ouden’s big-serving profile. Key factor to watch is how Den Ouden’s serve and high return index translate under pressure — if his serve produces free points, the match could be tighter than the probabilities suggest.

Get Daily Tennis Predictions

Enjoyed this analysis? Subscribe to our Telegram channel and receive daily AI-driven tennis predictions directly on your phone.

Join Our Telegram Channel