Eastbourne Great Britain Grass Atp 250 Quarterfinals

Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Ugo Humbert

Rank: #30
60%
VS

Quentin Halys

Rank: #94
40%
Expected Total Games: 26.9
Predicted Winner: Ugo Humbert

Why the Model Favors Ugo Humbert

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +6.5 Ugo Humbert
Overall strength +5.1 Ugo Humbert
Serve & return game +4.7 Ugo Humbert
Head-to-head +3.2 Quentin Halys
Recent record by level +2.8 Ugo Humbert

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 60% for Ugo Humbert. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Ugo Humbert

  • Current #30 2026-06-22
  • 3 mo ago #34 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #37 2025-12-22
  • 9 mo ago #24 2025-09-22
  • 12 mo ago #20 2025-06-23

Quentin Halys

  • Current #94 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #111 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #91 2025-12-22
  • 9 mo ago #75 2025-09-22
  • 12 mo ago #47 2025-06-23

Player Metrics

Ugo Humbert

Form Index: 57.3
ELO Rating: 1718.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1770.1
Current Fatigue (minutes): 240.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 28.8
Clay: 15.4
Grass: 18.8
Serve Rating: 97.4
Return Rating: 92.3

Quentin Halys

Form Index: 41.7
ELO Rating: 1646.3
Glicko2 Rating: 1677.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 148.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 26.9
Clay: 18.5
Grass: 5.1
Serve Rating: 96.5
Return Rating: 82.7

Recent Matches

Ugo Humbert
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

Quentin Halys
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Giles Hussey (2-0) grass Eastbourne 82 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Toby Samuel (0-2) grass Eastbourne 66 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Sho Shimabukuro (0-2) grass Stuttgart 56 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Alexander Zverev (1-3) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Ugo Humbert (3-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Ugo Humbert
vs
1
Quentin Halys
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 1
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Quarterfinals at Eastbourne on grass sees Ugo Humbert and Quentin Halys meet in an indoor-short lead-up to Wimbledon on the fastest surface of the calendar. The model favors Humbert to advance (59.91% vs 40.09%) with an expected total of about 26.9 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Humbert comes mainly from recent form (+6.5 percentage points), overall strength (+5.1 pp) and the combined serve & return profile (+4.7 pp), while Halys’ head-to-head record chips away (-3.2 pp). Humbert arrives as the higher-ranked player (No. 30 vs No. 94) with a stronger Elo (1718.3 to 1646.3) and a notably higher form index (57.3 vs 41.7). That recent form is reflected in two wins at Eastbourne — a straight-sets victory over Jenson Brooksby and a tight three-setter against Mattia Bellucci — after a loss at London to Tommy Paul. Halys’s recent slate is more up-and-down: a win over Giles Hussey at Eastbourne bookended by losses to Toby Samuel and Sho Shimabukuro. Surface and workload are relevant: Humbert has accumulated 240 minutes in the tournament versus Halys’s 148, which could matter in longer rallies despite Humbert’s superior surface strength index (18.8 to 5.1). Serve numbers are comparable—Humbert’s mean serve index (97.35) and Halys’s (96.49) are within a point—so no big serving advantage on paper. However Humbert’s mean return index (92.29) is markedly higher than Halys’s (82.75), a gap greater than five points that supports the model’s return-based edge. Recent-record-by-level also nudges Humbert forward (+2.8 pp).

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 26.9 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Ugo Humbert - Quentin Halys) +0.9 Most likely spread: +1 (Ugo Humbert wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this grass match sits high: the model’s predicted aces are 21.23 for the match, consistent with grass favouring big, flat servers. The expected double faults are 6.61. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the predicted ace count reflects both players’ big serving tendencies on a fast surface rather than a single dominant server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.2 Most likely: 21 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 6.6 Most likely: 6 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

56.3% Predicted: Tiebreak likely

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Ugo Humbert's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (36.8%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Humbert’s recent form is the primary reason he is favored—the model explicitly cites recent form as the top driver. Watch his return game and stamina: if Humbert converts his return advantage early while managing the heavier minutes on court, he should close out the match.

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