Valentin Vacherot vs Aleksandar Kovacevic: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model’s edge for Kovacevic stems mainly from recent form, which moves the probability 5.6 percentage points in his direction. Kovacevic arrives with a higher form index at 38.23 versus Vacherot’s 29.30, and his recent stretch includes consecutive wins over Luca Van Assche and Stefanos Tsitsipas before a loss in Winston-Salem. Vacherot’s recent results are weaker, with three straight defeats in Kitzbuehel, Toronto and Cincinnati. That momentum gap explains much of the projected close advantage for Kovacevic. Overall strength still favors Vacherot by a small margin. Vacherot is the higher-ranked player at 23 compared with Kovacevic at 89, and he holds the higher Elo rating, 1685.94 to 1570.04. Both players report zero fatigue from the tournament. Surface strength index favors Vacherot, 27.91 to Kovacevic’s 18.42, and the serve and return picture gives Vacherot a modest edge on both mean serve (97.37) and mean return (88.44) versus Kovacevic (serve 96.45, return 84.08). The model also credits overall record and opposition quality slightly to Kovacevic by 1.3 points, while serve and return trends add 1.0 point toward Vacherot.