Santiago Chile Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Dusan Lajovic vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Aces & Double Faults

Dusan Lajovic

Rank: #116
36%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #81
64%
Expected Total Games: 23.2
Predicted Winner: Yannick Hanfmann

Ranking Trends

Dusan Lajovic

  • Current Rank: #116 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #119 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #128 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #125 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #100 (2025-02-24)

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current Rank: #81 (2026-02-23)
  • 3 Months Ago: #103 (2025-11-24)
  • 6 Months Ago: #132 (2025-08-25)
  • 9 Months Ago: #142 (2025-05-26)
  • 12 Months Ago: #109 (2025-02-24)

Player Metrics

Dusan Lajovic

Form Index: 41.4
ELO Rating: 533.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1575.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 2.0
Clay: 5.2
Grass: 4.2
Serve Rating: 64.7
Return Rating: 61.9

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 44.8
ELO Rating: 621.0
Glicko2 Rating: 1560.3
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 6.7
Clay: 6.1
Grass: 5.7
Serve Rating: 97.9
Return Rating: 89.8

Recent Matches

Dusan Lajovic
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Matteo Berrettini (1-2) clay Rio 129 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) clay Rio 121 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Thiago Monteiro (1-2) clay Rio 171 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Hugo Dellien (2-1) clay Rio 122 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Murphy Cassone (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min

Yannick Hanfmann
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1-2) clay Rio 169 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva (2-0) clay Rio 117 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs Carlos Alcaraz (0-3) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Zachary Svajda (3-1) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Terence Atmane (0-2) hard Brisbane 94 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Dusan Lajovic
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This Round of 32 match in Santiago, Chile is on clay at a 250-level event. Yannick Hanfmann is the projected winner with a 64.30% chance, while Dusan Lajovic is given a 35.70% chance; the model expects about 23.16 total games in the match.

Match Analysis

Hanfmann enters with a clear edge on paper: he is ranked 81 to Lajovic’s 116, carries a higher Elo (621.01 vs 533.11) and a slightly better form index (44.84 vs 41.39). Both players show no accumulated fatigue from this event (0.0 minutes). Surface strength indices are fairly close but favor Hanfmann marginally (6.09 vs 5.19). The mean serve index gap is substantial — Hanfmann 97.92 vs Lajovic 64.70 — and his mean return index is also markedly higher (89.81 vs 61.91), which points to a pronounced two-way advantage on serve and return for Hanfmann. Recent results show similar short-term records: each is 1–2 over the last three counted matches. Lajovic beat Daniel Altmaier in Rio but lost to Matteo Berrettini and Thiago Monteiro, with match durations indicating he's been through some long encounters (121–171 minutes). Hanfmann beat Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva in Rio but fell to Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Carlos Alcaraz, also coming off lengthy matches (117–174 minutes). Those prolonged outings suggest both are battle-tested on clay, though Hanfmann’s higher serve/return indices give him the statistical advantage.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 23.2 Most likely outcome: 23 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction for this clay match sits at a predicted aces total of 13.22, while the double faults prediction is 4.4 expected double faults. Clay generally suppresses ace counts due to slower ball speed and higher bounce, but Hanfmann’s much higher serve rating should push the ace tally upward relative to a neutral baseline. Expect ace opportunities primarily from Hanfmann; double faults may accumulate modestly in longer rallies.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.2 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.4 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s superior serve and return metrics and higher Elo underpin his edge. Key factor to watch: whether Lajovic can neutralize Hanfmann’s serve with consistent returns early in sets to force extended rallies on clay.

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