Hamburg Germany Clay Atp 500 Round of 32

Yannick Hanfmann vs Max Schoenhaus: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #59
86%
VS

Max Schoenhaus

Rank: #472
14%
Expected Total Games: 27.3
Predicted Winner: Yannick Hanfmann

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Ranking Trends

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #59 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #90 2026-02-16
  • 6 mo ago #104 2025-11-17
  • 9 mo ago #133 2025-08-18
  • 12 mo ago #137 2025-05-19

Max Schoenhaus

  • Current #472 2026-05-04
  • 3 mo ago #1000 None
  • 6 mo ago #1000 None
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 41.8
ELO Rating: 1660.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1735.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.7
Clay: 23.3
Grass: 13.7
Serve Rating: 96.2
Return Rating: 91.5

Max Schoenhaus

Form Index: 36.8
ELO Rating: 1519.4
Glicko2 Rating: 1693.7
Current Fatigue (minutes): 96.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 10.0
Clay: 9.2
Grass: 3.2
Serve Rating: 97.8
Return Rating: 88.7

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Max Schoenhaus
✅ ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Luca Van Assche (2-0) clay Hamburg 96 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Jesper de Jong (1-2) grass Halle 126 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs None (0-0) None None 0 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
0
Max Schoenhaus
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

At Hamburg, on clay in the round of 32 of a 500-level event in Germany, Yannick Hanfmann is strongly favored to progress. The model gives Hanfmann an 86.19% chance to win versus 13.81% for Max Schoenhaus, with a predicted total of about 27.3 games in the match.

Match Analysis

Hanfmann arrives as the clear higher-ranked player (No. 59 vs No. 472) with an Elo of 1660.16 compared with Schoenhaus’s 1519.36, and a slightly stronger form index (41.8 vs 36.8). Hanfmann’s surface strength index on clay (23.25) is markedly better than Schoenhaus’s (9.23), and he has no cumulative fatigue from this event while Schoenhaus already carries 96 minutes on court — a factor on physically demanding clay. Both players show similar serve and return profiles by the proprietary indices, so the prediction leans on ranking, Elo and clay comfort rather than a stark serving mismatch. Recent results underline the gap in experience and consistency. Hanfmann’s last three matches on clay are mixed: a straight-sets loss to Luciano Darderi, a gritty win over Hubert Hurkacz in Rome, and a prior defeat to Francisco Cerundolo in Madrid. Schoenhaus’s recent run includes a confidence-boosting 2-0 win over Luca Van Assche in Hamburg, but before that a three-set loss on grass and limited tour-level history. The pattern suggests Hanfmann’s higher-level wins and clay familiarity outweigh Schoenhaus’s upset potential.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 27.3 Most likely outcome: 27 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yannick Hanfmann - Max Schoenhaus) +1.6 Most likely spread: +1 (Yannick Hanfmann wins 1 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 9.03 for the match and the predicted double faults total is 5.71. On clay, the slower surface typically reduces ace counts and can elevate fatigue-driven errors, so the expected aces are modest and the expected double faults reasonably elevated. Neither player posts a runaway serve rating advantage, so predicted aces should be distributed rather than dominated by one man.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 9.0 Most likely: 9 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 5.7 Most likely: 5 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

36.2% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Yannick Hanfmann's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (48.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s ranking, superior Elo and clearer clay pedigree give him the edge in Hamburg. The key factor to watch is Schoenhaus’s energy level after 96 minutes on court — if fatigue shows, breaks will likely come quickly and confirm the forecast.

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