Gstaad Switzerland Clay Atp 250 Round of 32

Pedro Martinez vs Yannick Hanfmann: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Pedro Martinez

Rank: #134
25%
VS

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #51
75%
Expected Total Games: 24.4
Predicted Winner: Yannick Hanfmann

Why the Model Favors Yannick Hanfmann

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent form +10.4 Yannick Hanfmann
Serve & return game +5.3 Yannick Hanfmann
Recent record by level +3.5 Yannick Hanfmann
Overall record & opposition quality +3.3 Yannick Hanfmann
Overall strength +1.1 Yannick Hanfmann

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 75% for Yannick Hanfmann. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Pedro Martinez

  • Current #134 2026-06-29
  • 3 mo ago #125 2026-04-13
  • 6 mo ago #71 2026-01-12
  • 9 mo ago #89 2025-10-13
  • 12 mo ago #47 2025-07-14

Yannick Hanfmann

  • Current #51 2026-07-13
  • 3 mo ago #51 2026-04-13
  • 6 mo ago #101 2026-01-12
  • 9 mo ago #139 2025-10-13
  • 12 mo ago #134 2025-07-14

Player Metrics

Pedro Martinez

Form Index: 34.0
ELO Rating: 1511.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1495.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 8.3
Clay: 13.1
Grass: 10.6
Serve Rating: 94.4
Return Rating: 91.9

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 37.8
ELO Rating: 1637.8
Glicko2 Rating: 1724.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 24.6
Clay: 21.5
Grass: 15.6
Serve Rating: 96.6
Return Rating: 86.6

Recent Matches

Pedro Martinez
❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Otto Virtanen (1-2) grass Wimbledon 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Emilio Nava (0-2) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Arthur Fery (2-1) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: ✅ vs Rei Sakamoto (2-0) clay Roland Garros 174 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs Jesper de Jong (0-2) clay Rome 149 min

Yannick Hanfmann
❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Pedro Martinez
vs
0
Yannick Hanfmann
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

This round-of-32 clay match in Gstaad pits Pedro Martínez (rank 134) against Yannick Hanfmann (rank 51) in an ATP 250 field in Switzerland. The model forecasts Yannick Hanfmann to win, with a 74.90% probability versus a 25.10% chance for Martínez, and expects a relatively short match of about 24.35 total games.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Hanfmann comes mainly from recent form (+10.4 percentage points) and a favorable serve & return picture (+5.3). Hanfmann carries the higher ranking and Elo (rank 51, Elo 1637.84) compared with Martínez (rank 134, Elo 1511.53), and his form index is slightly higher (37.82 vs 34.02). Recent-record-by-level and overall record/opposition quality also nudge the prediction toward Hanfmann (+3.5 and +3.3 respectively). Looking at the underlying stats, Hanfmann posts a marginally better mean serve index (96.58 vs Martínez’s 94.43) while Martínez boasts the stronger mean return (91.87) compared with Hanfmann (86.58) — a difference of about 5.3 points in return that could make returning a focal battle. Surface strength favors Hanfmann as well (surface index 21.46 vs Martínez 13.09). Both enter this match fresh with no fatigue recorded in the event. Over their last three matches each, neither player has been in dominating streaks. Martínez is 1–2 across Roland Garros and Wimbledon outings, picking up a clay win earlier but with two recent losses. Hanfmann is also 1–2: a solid win over Mpetshi Perricard was sandwiched between losses, including a straight-sets defeat to Khachanov on grass.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 24.4 Most likely outcome: 24 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Pedro Martinez - Yannick Hanfmann) -2.8 Most likely spread: -3 (Yannick Hanfmann wins 3 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The aces prediction sits at about 8.47 predicted aces for the match and an expected double faults tally near 4.81. On clay, predicted aces tend to be lower and expected double faults a touch higher because slower bounce reduces outright service winners and longer rallies can induce errors. Neither player has a significantly higher serve rating, so the ace count is likely moderated by the surface rather than one dominant big server.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 8.5 Most likely: 8 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 4.8 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

37.6% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Pedro Martinez's perspective)

0-2 Most likely set score (44.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Hanfmann’s advantage is driven foremost by recent form, supported by superior ranking and Elo. The key factor to watch is whether Martínez’s stronger return index (≈5.3 points better) can neutralize Hanfmann’s marginally stronger serve and surface comfort; that matchup will likely decide how many breaks — and how short — the contest becomes.

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