Australian Open Australia Hard Grand Slam Round of 128

Yannick Hanfmann vs Zachary Svajda: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Yannick Hanfmann

Rank: #102
41%
VS

Zachary Svajda

Rank: #142
59%
Expected Total Games: 38.6
Predicted Winner: Zachary Svajda

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Player Metrics

Yannick Hanfmann

Form Index: 31.3
ELO Rating: 611.5
Glicko2 Rating: 1558.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 4.2
Clay: 4.9
Grass: 4.7
Serve Rating: 73.4
Return Rating: 55.9

Zachary Svajda

Form Index: 100.0
ELO Rating: 485.1
Glicko2 Rating: 1543.9
Current Fatigue (minutes): 522.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 14.2
Clay: 9.0
Grass: 9.0
Serve Rating: 94.8
Return Rating: 91.3

Recent Matches

Yannick Hanfmann

Zachary Svajda

  • Last Match: vs Kimmer Coppejans (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 2nd Last Match: vs Jurij Rodionov (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 3rd Last Match: vs Hady Habib (2-0) hard Australian Open 174 min
  • 4th Last Match: vs Lloyd Harris (1-2) hard Chengdu 126 min
  • 5th Last Match: vs Novak Djokovic (1-3) hard Us Open 174 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Yannick Hanfmann
vs
0
Zachary Svajda
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

The first round of the 2026 Australian Open sees Yannick Hanfmann take on Zachary Svajda on hard courts in Australia. With the match set to unfold in the Round of 128, Zachary Svajda is favored to win with a probability of 58.83%, compared to Hanfmann's 41.17%. The expected total number of games in this match is approximately 38.64.

Match Analysis

Yannick Hanfmann is currently ranked 102nd with a form index of 31.33 and an Elo rating of 611.49. His cumulative fatigue is minimal at 0.0 minutes, indicating he is fresh for the encounter. However, his surface strength index of 4.22, along with a mean serve index of 73.40 and a mean return index of 55.90, suggests he may struggle to compete against his opponent. In contrast, Zachary Svajda, ranked 142nd, boasts a perfect form index of 100.0 and an Elo rating of 485.11. While his fatigue level is higher at 522.0 minutes, he excels on this surface with a surface strength index of 14.16, a mean serve index of 94.85, and a mean return index of 91.29. The significant difference in the mean serve index (over 21 points) indicates that Svajda possesses a much stronger serve, which is pivotal on hard courts. Both players have had contrasting performances in their recent matches. Hanfmann has struggled, losing his last two matches to Terence Atmane and Jacob Fearnley, indicating a lack of momentum. Conversely, Svajda is riding a wave of success, having won his last three matches at the Australian Open without dropping a set, showcasing his current form and confidence.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 38.6 Most likely outcome: 38 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Probability distribution chart for total games in Yannick Hanfmann versus Zachary Svajda. The X-axis shows possible total games values and the Y-axis shows the predicted probability percentage for each outcome.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total games in Yannick Hanfmann versus Zachary Svajda. The curve rises from 0% to 100%, showing the cumulative probability for each games total threshold.

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Yannick Hanfmann - Zachary Svajda) +0.7 Most likely spread: 0 (even number of games won)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Probability distribution chart for games spread in Yannick Hanfmann versus Zachary Svajda. Positive values indicate Yannick Hanfmann winning more games, negative values indicate Zachary Svajda winning more games.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for games spread in Yannick Hanfmann versus Zachary Svajda. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each spread threshold.

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

The match is expected to feature around 21.61 aces, reflecting the strengths of both players' serving capabilities, particularly Svajda's significant advantage in serve index. The predicted double faults stand at 4.86, suggesting that while both players may have some errors, the hard court surface should allow for a relatively clean service game. Given Svajda's higher mean serve index, he is likely to contribute more to the aces prediction during the match.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 21.6 Most likely: 21 aces
Expected Total Double Faults 4.9 Most likely: 4 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Probability distribution chart for total aces in Yannick Hanfmann versus Zachary Svajda. Higher ace counts are more likely on faster surfaces like grass.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for total aces in Yannick Hanfmann versus Zachary Svajda. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each aces threshold.

Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Probability distribution chart for double faults in Yannick Hanfmann versus Zachary Svajda. Clay surface matches tend to produce more double faults due to fatigue in longer rallies.
Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

Cumulative distribution function chart for double faults in Yannick Hanfmann versus Zachary Svajda. The curve shows the cumulative probability for each double faults threshold.

Final Prediction

Zachary Svajda holds a clear edge in this matchup, primarily due to his superior serve and current form. The key factor to watch will be Svajda's ability to capitalize on his serve, which could heavily influence the outcomes of crucial points throughout the match.

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