Eastbourne Great Britain Grass Atp 250 Semifinals

Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

Zizou Bergs

Rank: #48
76%
VS

Toby Samuel

Rank: #144
24%
Expected Total Games: 30.7
Predicted Winner: Zizou Bergs

Why the Model Favors Zizou Bergs

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Overall strength +12.9 Zizou Bergs
Serve & return game +7.0 Zizou Bergs
Surface fit +4.8 Zizou Bergs
Recent record by level +4.0 Zizou Bergs
Recent form +1.8 Zizou Bergs

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 76% for Zizou Bergs. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network — not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Zizou Bergs

  • Current #48 2026-06-22
  • 3 mo ago #45 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #43 2025-12-22
  • 9 mo ago #45 2025-09-22
  • 12 mo ago #50 2025-06-23

Toby Samuel

  • Current #144 2026-06-15
  • 3 mo ago #171 2026-03-16
  • 6 mo ago #264 2025-12-22
  • 9 mo ago #1000 None
  • 12 mo ago #1000 None

Player Metrics

Zizou Bergs

Form Index: 38.9
ELO Rating: 1591.6
Glicko2 Rating: 1621.6
Current Fatigue (minutes): 216.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 21.9
Clay: 10.7
Grass: 14.2
Serve Rating: 96.3
Return Rating: 92.6

Toby Samuel

Form Index: 50.3
ELO Rating: 1630.9
Glicko2 Rating: 1730.0
Current Fatigue (minutes): 357.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 11.6
Clay: 16.5
Grass: 8.4
Serve Rating: 93.8
Return Rating: 87.8

Recent Matches

Zizou Bergs
✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ❌

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Jan Choinski (2-0) grass Eastbourne 76 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Daniel Altmaier (2-0) grass Eastbourne 60 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Jaume Munar (2-0) grass Eastbourne 80 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Taylor Fritz (1-2) grass Halle 133 min
  • 5th Last Match: ❌ vs James McCabe (1-2) grass S Hertogenbosch 161 min

Toby Samuel
✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

0
Zizou Bergs
vs
0
Toby Samuel
Hard
0 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Semifinal at Eastbourne, Great Britain — a grass-court showdown at a 250-level event. The model backs Zizou Bergs to win, giving him a 76.45% chance versus 23.55% for Toby Samuel, with a predicted total of about 30.7 games in the match.

Match Analysis

The model’s edge for Bergs comes mainly from overall strength, then his superior serve & return metrics and better surface fit. Bergs is the higher-ranked player (No. 48 vs No. 144) and posts a strong mean serve index (96.3) and mean return index (92.6), which together drove the model’s serve & return advantage. While Toby carries a slightly higher Elo (1630.9 vs 1591.6) and a higher form index on paper (50.3 vs 38.9), those advantages are outweighed by Bergs’ consistent grass numbers and higher surface strength index (14.21 vs 8.45). Fatigue also colors the matchup: Toby has logged substantially more minutes this week (357 vs 216), which is relevant late in a fast tournament week. Both players have shown solid recent results on grass — Bergs arrives unbeaten in three straight wins at Eastbourne, all in straight sets and relatively short matches, whereas Samuel has two straight wins here but a deeper, longer loss in his prior match. Recent-record-by-level and recent form factors favor Bergs, reinforcing the projection.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 30.7 Most likely outcome: 31 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Zizou Bergs - Toby Samuel) +2.6 Most likely spread: +2 (Zizou Bergs wins 2 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Aces prediction: the match is expected to produce about 13.8 aces, and the predicted aces total reflects grass as the fastest surface where big serving shines. Double faults prediction: expected double faults are roughly 7.74 for the match. Bergs’ mean serve index is marginally higher, which could nudge the ace count upward, but neither player shows a drastically superior serve rating, so much of the ace production will come from short rallies and quick service holds on grass.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 13.8 Most likely: 13 aces
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 7.7 Most likely: 7 double faults

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

🎯 Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

40.3% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Zizou Bergs's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (52.2%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Bergs’ overall strength is the primary reason he is favored — his grass suitability and two-way game (serve and return) give him the edge. Watch how fatigue and return aggression play out: if Samuel’s legs fade, Bergs’ return quality is likely to decide the tie.

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