Coco Gauff vs Marta Kostyuk: AI Prediction | Games, Spread, Aces & Double Faults

The model's edge for Gauff comes mainly from overall strength, which adds 9.8 percentage points to her side, and a favorable surface fit adding 2.2 points. Those positives are tempered by Kostyuk gaining 4.4 points from overall record and opposition quality, 2.7 points from serve and return metrics, and a 1.9 point head-to-head tilt toward Kostyuk. Coco sits higher in the rankings at 4 versus Kostyuk at 11, and Gauff has a strong surface strength index of 70.28 compared with Kostyuk at 52.24. Elo ratings are tighter, with Kostyuk at 2043.8 and Gauff at 2017.8, which helps explain some of Kostyuk's probability push. Fatigue is relevant here: Gauff has logged 219 minutes in the event, Kostyuk 243 minutes. Serve numbers are almost identical, so neither player holds a clear serving advantage based on mean serve index. The mean return index is a notable gap. Gauff posts 95.61 versus Kostyuk 89.00, a difference greater than five points that favors Gauff as a returner. Recent form shows Kostyuk with wins over Sloane Stephens and Sofia Kenin in Cincinnati and a loss to Iga Swiatek in Montreal. Gauff has won two Cincinnati matches, over Ann Li and Liudmila Samsonova, and lost to Elena Rybakina in Montreal. Durations suggest both have had some long matches in the build up.