Beijing Beijing, CHN Hard Wta 1000 Round of 64

Karolina Muchova vs Katie Boulter Prediction

Karolina Muchova

Rank: #8
83%
VS

Katie Boulter

Rank: #56
17%
Expected Total Games: 20.9
Predicted Winner: Karolina Muchova

Why the Model Favors Karolina Muchova

The factors that drove this prediction, measured in win-probability points.

Recent record by level +9.7 Karolina Muchova
Overall strength +8.4 Karolina Muchova
Serve & return game +6.4 Karolina Muchova
Head-to-head +4.2 Karolina Muchova
Surface fit +3.8 Karolina Muchova

Starting from an even matchup, these factors move the model to 83% for Karolina Muchova. Computed with gradient-based attribution on our neural network, not editorial opinion. How to read this →

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Ranking Trends

Karolina Muchova

  • Current #8 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #9 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #11 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #19 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #15 2025-09-29

Katie Boulter

  • Current #56 2026-09-28
  • 3 mo ago #60 2026-06-29
  • 6 mo ago #64 2026-03-30
  • 9 mo ago #106 2025-12-29
  • 12 mo ago #54 2025-09-29

Player Metrics

Karolina Muchova

Form Index: 36.6
ELO Rating: 2008.3
Glicko2 Rating: 2063.4
Current Fatigue (minutes): 0.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 64.4
Clay: 32.6
Grass: 53.1
Serve Rating: 97.5
Return Rating: 92.6

Katie Boulter

Form Index: 32.6
ELO Rating: 1669.2
Glicko2 Rating: 1765.5
Current Fatigue (minutes): 95.0
Surface Strength:
Hard: 33.9
Clay: 18.9
Grass: 14.2
Serve Rating: 94.0
Return Rating: 86.2

Recent Matches

Karolina Muchova
❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ❌ vs Emma Navarro (0-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ✅ vs Katie Boulter (2-0) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Sinja Kraus (2-0) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Linda Noskova (1-2) grass Wimbledon 120 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Coco Gauff (2-1) grass Wimbledon 120 min

Katie Boulter
✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅

  • Last Match: ✅ vs Mai Hontama (2-0) hard Beijing 95 min
  • 2nd Last Match: ❌ vs Karolina Muchova (0-2) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 3rd Last Match: ✅ vs Carol Young Suh Lee (2-1) hard Us Open 120 min
  • 4th Last Match: ❌ vs Linda Noskova (0-2) hard Cincinnati 76 min
  • 5th Last Match: ✅ vs Katie Volynets (2-1) hard Cincinnati 159 min

Head-to-Head (Last 2 Seasons)

2
Karolina Muchova
vs
0
Katie Boulter
Hard
2 - 0
Clay
0 - 0
Grass
0 - 0

Key Prediction Insights

Muchova is a strong favourite, with an 83% win probability to Boulter’s 17%. The forecast points to 20.9 total games in this Beijing Round of 64 match.

Match Analysis

The ranking gap is substantial, with Muchova at No. 8 and Boulter at No. 56. Muchova also has the stronger hard-court profile and return game, giving her more ways to put pressure on Boulter’s service games. Boulter arrives after a straight-sets win over Mai Hontama in Beijing, but Muchova’s straight-sets victory over her at the US Open is the more direct matchup evidence. Boulter has spent 95 minutes on court in Beijing, while Muchova has logged none in this tournament.

Total Games Predictions

🎾
Expected Total Games in Match 20.9 Most likely outcome: 19 games

📊 Total Games Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each total games outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of total games ≤ X

Games Spread Predictions

📈
Expected Games Spread (Karolina Muchova - Katie Boulter) +3.8 Most likely spread: +4 (Karolina Muchova wins 4 more games)

📊 Games Spread Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each games spread outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of spread ≤ X

Aces and Double Faults Predictions

Muchova is projected to hit 3.2 aces, compared with 1.3 for Boulter, reflecting Muchova’s slight advantage in serve strength. The expected double-fault counts are 3.2 for Muchova and 5.8 for Boulter, a sizeable potential liability for the Briton, who has already spent time on court in Beijing.
🎯
Expected Total Aces 4.5 Most likely: 3 aces Per player: Karolina Muchova 3.2 + Katie Boulter 1.2
❌
Expected Total Double Faults 8.8 Most likely: 7 double faults Per player: Karolina Muchova 3.2 + Katie Boulter 5.8

🎯 Aces Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each ace count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of aces ≤ X

🎯 Aces by Player

Karolina Muchova

Expected 3.2 aces

Katie Boulter

Expected 1.2 aces

❌ Double Faults Probability Distribution

Distribution

Probability of each double fault count outcome

Cumulative Probability (CDF)

Probability of double faults ≤ X

❌ Double Faults by Player

Karolina Muchova

Expected 3.2 double faults

Katie Boulter

Expected 5.8 double faults

Match Format Predictions

Tiebreak Likelihood

Probability that any tiebreak is played in this match

28.1% Predicted: No tiebreak

Exact Score Distribution BO3

Probability of each set-by-set outcome (Karolina Muchova's perspective)

2-0 Most likely set score (64.0%)
New to probability charts? Learn how to interpret distribution and CDF curves

Final Prediction

Boulter’s serve is her best chance to make this closer: if it earns her enough free points to reduce Muchova’s return pressure, the forecast could shift. The projected 5.8 double faults leave little room for serving errors.

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